***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 -1.2 -1.4 -1.0 0.9 56.8 59.5 -4.2 -1.5 0.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 1.7 69.9 67.5 -4.5 -1.7 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 0.3 0.7 -0.5 1.3 62.6 63.4 -2.5 -0.1 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 -4.3 -3.9 -2.5 1.8 67.1 67.6 -6.8 -5.7 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 -0.5 -0.6 -1.5 1.8 68.5 67.6 -4.3 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 -1.5 -1.8 -4.6 1.5 63.2 62.4 -5.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 1.5 65.5 64.4 -4.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -7.3 -6.1 -4.0 1.5 61.7 62.6 -8.9 -7.6 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 0.9 1.7 -0.8 2.8 80.6 78.7 -4.0 -1.0 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 -0.3 0.0 -2.6 2.2 71.9 71.0 -4.1 -2.5 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 -0.5 0.4 -1.7 2.4 73.3 72.5 -4.6 -2.9 -0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 -2.6 -1.6 -3.2 1.5 62.7 63.6 -4.9 -3.0 -1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -0.6 -3.0 1.8 66.7 65.9 -4.1 -2.4 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 0.6 1.2 -0.6 3.2 82.5 80.9 -3.0 -1.2 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 -0.5 0.4 -0.3 2.8 81.6 80.3 -4.5 -2.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 -0.1 0.1 -2.9 1.8 65.4 64.9 -3.5 -1.4 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 2.2 72.7 71.9 -4.0 -2.6 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 -2.8 -2.2 -3.0 2.0 70.0 69.5 -7.1 -3.9 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 1.7 69.2 67.8 -3.7 -1.5 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 -6.4 -6.7 -5.7 0.4 49.7 51.2 -9.3 -6.6 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 0.2 0.6 0.0 2.3 76.1 73.9 -4.5 -1.0 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 2.3 74.3 75.3 -3.8 -2.2 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 -0.8 -0.5 -0.7 1.7 67.0 67.4 -3.6 -1.8 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 -0.3 0.3 -0.9 2.8 80.7 78.2 -3.8 -2.2 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 -1.1 -0.5 -1.1 1.3 62.5 62.2 -4.2 -1.3 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 -2.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.6 53.3 53.4 -4.4 -2.8 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 -0.9 -0.6 -1.5 0.7 54.5 55.6 -3.7 -1.3 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 -1.8 -1.1 -1.7 2.4 74.0 73.6 -5.5 -3.6 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 -4.1 -3.7 -4.6 1.6 62.2 62.8 -6.6 -4.5 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -0.1 -0.8 1.1 61.1 61.0 -4.2 -1.5 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------