***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 49.5 104.3 61.6 54.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 35.2 44.0 48.1 113.0 65.9 58.7 25.4 30.8 44.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.4 49.7 48.3 101.7 58.0 52.4 25.6 45.1 52.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 45.7 41.8 49.3 96.5 52.1 49.4 26.6 40.3 57.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 45.6 44.1 51.3 100.4 53.4 51.7 28.8 41.3 51.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 32.0 33.7 50.8 100.8 54.3 53.2 22.2 29.2 39.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 43.9 44.4 48.6 118.0 69.2 61.1 24.4 33.0 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 55.3 51.8 54.6 102.1 55.8 54.1 35.4 50.2 54.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 32.5 32.6 52.6 100.5 53.4 51.2 18.7 28.9 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 36.9 37.2 55.2 102.6 53.9 53.4 23.6 35.1 43.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 38.4 36.4 49.7 102.2 54.3 53.3 23.9 34.5 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 34.3 36.6 49.2 100.6 55.6 53.3 26.7 31.1 42.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 36.9 38.1 52.0 102.8 56.2 54.5 23.9 33.6 43.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 54.1 59.7 56.9 108.6 63.3 57.2 35.7 49.2 64.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 46.8 38.5 43.2 88.2 47.2 45.1 18.2 42.5 53.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 36.1 36.9 49.4 101.7 55.2 53.4 22.2 33.0 47.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 33.4 35.9 48.1 122.2 69.0 61.8 20.9 28.8 35.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 35.4 35.1 59.8 104.2 55.9 54.5 22.6 31.4 39.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 41.9 47.2 48.0 108.4 63.3 56.4 24.8 37.3 50.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 44.7 51.2 69.1 103.1 58.3 54.5 26.0 40.2 55.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 42.8 44.4 50.7 100.7 54.4 51.2 24.4 38.9 48.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 39.4 44.1 49.4 117.5 65.1 59.8 22.2 34.9 45.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.0 43.0 49.2 105.1 61.0 54.4 20.7 34.2 47.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 45.6 45.1 54.5 104.1 56.3 54.0 31.9 42.3 54.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 47.0 47.6 54.6 104.4 57.8 54.3 25.0 42.7 54.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 27.5 26.6 49.5 98.3 55.2 52.6 17.0 24.4 37.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 44.3 50.0 54.3 108.3 62.1 57.1 18.7 39.5 52.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 40.3 36.3 46.1 94.0 50.8 48.6 17.1 36.2 51.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 59.6 58.1 63.5 104.7 57.6 55.2 41.7 55.3 64.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 39.0 48.9 48.2 109.0 64.8 57.1 18.9 34.8 50.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------