***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 115.6 65.1 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 8.4 9.3 10.5 122.6 70.9 58.6 0.3 2.8 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.3 10.2 111.1 66.4 56.9 0.4 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 11.0 11.0 109.8 67.3 55.4 2.6 5.6 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.0 9.2 11.0 111.1 68.9 57.0 0.6 4.0 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.0 6.4 10.9 110.1 67.2 56.9 0.5 2.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.9 7.2 11.1 130.4 71.5 59.4 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.3 11.9 117.3 67.0 59.3 2.3 7.6 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.8 8.0 11.4 113.2 68.4 57.8 0.7 3.6 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.2 12.2 118.1 67.3 59.1 1.2 3.5 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.2 7.8 10.6 114.7 71.2 58.2 0.5 2.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.9 10.2 109.5 67.0 57.7 1.0 4.2 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.8 8.4 10.7 105.8 66.2 56.6 0.4 3.0 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.3 12.1 121.8 69.4 59.4 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.7 10.3 108.8 65.9 54.2 0.8 5.4 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 3.3 6.6 10.3 111.1 69.8 56.9 0.5 1.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.2 7.3 10.7 132.0 71.8 59.7 0.4 2.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 8.6 7.6 13.5 122.2 69.7 60.1 2.4 3.6 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 11.8 10.1 115.9 69.2 57.5 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.4 8.6 16.2 127.2 72.4 61.8 1.6 4.5 6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.2 11.2 10.8 111.5 65.8 57.3 1.0 3.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.0 8.6 10.6 126.1 69.4 59.0 0.3 2.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.2 10.0 111.5 68.2 56.7 0.2 3.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 10.8 8.7 11.7 116.7 67.7 58.2 1.4 3.8 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.0 9.5 12.3 116.3 63.9 56.7 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.9 10.1 102.0 62.7 55.8 0.8 1.8 3.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.7 12.3 119.7 64.0 57.2 0.2 3.5 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.1 10.4 109.9 67.8 55.1 0.8 4.6 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 15.7 13.4 14.6 125.6 71.5 61.2 4.1 7.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.4 10.6 120.0 71.1 58.2 0.4 1.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------