***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 13.9 122.5 66.5 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 2.9 5.9 12.7 124.4 67.3 57.1 0.9 1.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.6 6.9 14.2 121.9 65.2 58.8 1.2 3.4 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 8.3 9.4 16.3 125.0 70.1 60.0 0.8 4.3 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.8 17.0 128.0 68.3 60.1 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.4 5.1 17.2 132.4 69.7 61.7 0.6 3.0 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.9 5.0 12.4 125.9 67.0 57.3 0.8 1.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.8 10.2 17.9 124.0 67.0 59.3 2.0 6.7 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.4 9.0 17.1 126.8 68.5 60.3 0.4 2.7 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.8 18.1 126.4 67.8 60.1 1.2 4.6 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.1 16.6 128.5 66.7 59.9 0.5 5.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.2 8.4 16.3 126.5 67.4 59.4 0.9 2.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.7 17.3 132.4 67.8 61.0 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.1 8.3 17.0 130.0 63.7 60.4 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 8.2 14.4 115.8 68.8 58.3 0.6 3.2 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.1 7.3 16.6 131.7 67.4 60.7 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.5 7.5 11.9 124.3 68.4 56.1 1.2 3.3 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.8 8.3 19.2 126.6 68.4 59.9 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.7 13.2 123.6 65.3 57.3 1.0 3.2 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.2 12.4 21.9 121.2 68.5 59.0 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.2 6.5 15.8 124.2 65.9 59.6 1.6 2.5 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.7 6.3 12.6 122.1 67.5 56.5 1.4 3.6 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.6 14.2 125.3 64.0 58.1 1.3 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.6 17.0 127.1 65.9 60.1 2.4 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 8.9 7.5 16.0 124.6 66.8 60.1 1.1 2.9 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.4 16.3 126.9 67.5 60.4 0.6 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.5 15.0 125.6 67.7 60.3 0.3 2.9 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.1 9.0 15.8 124.6 70.2 60.0 0.2 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.8 10.4 20.1 125.8 67.4 59.9 2.4 5.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.3 5.5 13.0 123.4 66.2 58.1 0.8 2.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------