***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 130.6 66.9 59.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.8 13.4 132.7 66.8 60.4 2.1 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 17.9 17.9 13.9 129.9 68.0 59.9 5.6 8.2 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.4 13.2 116.4 63.7 57.7 5.8 11.4 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.8 13.9 120.2 65.6 58.4 7.1 12.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.2 14.5 117.1 68.7 56.2 5.1 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.4 15.0 13.5 137.8 68.2 62.3 2.7 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.8 24.1 15.4 125.1 69.6 60.4 9.2 14.3 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.8 14.6 119.8 65.6 58.4 6.9 9.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.9 14.7 15.4 122.7 68.2 59.8 4.7 11.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.0 13.6 123.7 69.1 59.3 5.3 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.3 13.7 123.6 68.3 58.9 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.7 17.5 14.7 124.8 70.9 58.6 6.1 10.8 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 19.5 20.6 16.8 134.9 70.4 64.0 6.6 13.9 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.4 11.6 104.0 58.6 54.5 1.6 6.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.9 15.3 13.4 120.2 68.0 57.6 5.2 8.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.1 13.4 13.3 136.1 67.8 62.1 3.7 4.6 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.2 13.7 17.0 122.5 68.7 60.5 5.1 9.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.6 13.7 131.1 65.9 60.1 2.5 8.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 20.5 19.7 122.9 71.5 61.5 4.8 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.5 15.6 14.0 122.2 68.9 58.5 4.7 8.7 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.0 13.5 128.3 65.3 60.0 1.8 5.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.0 12.0 14.4 132.5 65.5 61.0 2.3 8.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.7 15.8 127.8 68.3 61.4 5.7 16.5 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.6 17.4 15.1 130.2 68.1 60.6 4.5 8.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 15.1 14.6 126.1 69.2 59.3 3.9 7.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.2 10.9 15.0 134.8 68.6 61.4 4.1 5.9 10.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.8 12.2 109.7 59.6 55.9 2.7 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.9 19.6 18.3 122.9 68.2 61.3 8.1 14.4 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.0 10.3 13.5 132.5 67.3 60.1 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------