***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 68.0 43.9 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 8.3 9.7 11.5 84.1 53.8 51.7 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.5 9.3 10.1 62.9 42.8 40.9 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.1 8.8 52.7 38.4 34.7 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.1 8.6 9.3 57.2 40.4 35.1 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.0 8.2 54.2 38.4 34.2 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 10.8 11.7 11.7 89.5 56.2 53.6 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.3 9.4 56.8 34.8 33.3 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.3 4.4 9.5 57.3 38.5 34.7 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 4.5 9.6 57.5 35.6 34.0 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.0 6.9 9.0 57.9 39.1 35.2 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.2 9.0 57.5 36.7 34.5 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.0 4.8 9.3 59.7 38.9 35.1 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.5 10.2 11.0 65.2 40.6 39.7 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.4 1.1 6.8 43.1 32.8 33.2 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.7 9.0 58.4 38.7 35.1 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 9.0 9.7 12.3 102.6 57.4 58.0 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.5 5.7 10.0 58.3 33.8 34.1 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 11.3 9.6 11.1 76.6 50.8 48.3 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.1 4.9 11.4 56.1 32.4 32.9 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.9 6.9 10.1 61.2 40.1 37.9 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 10.4 11.4 12.7 99.5 56.9 56.6 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.9 6.9 10.7 68.1 43.7 43.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.0 10.0 60.3 38.9 37.2 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.3 9.1 11.2 64.9 42.2 40.2 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.4 3.6 8.6 53.3 38.2 33.1 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.0 6.0 12.0 71.5 44.3 44.0 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 3.9 7.7 48.7 34.1 33.4 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.2 7.9 10.4 57.8 32.8 33.1 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 10.1 7.5 11.1 75.9 49.6 48.1 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------