***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 2.8 79.7 75.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 5.5 6.2 4.8 3.2 79.4 77.3 1.9 3.5 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 7.2 7.8 5.4 3.1 81.5 77.9 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.0 74.3 69.7 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 6.4 7.3 3.7 2.6 79.2 74.7 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 5.7 5.4 2.2 1.7 66.9 67.6 2.8 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 5.2 5.8 4.5 3.0 78.3 76.1 1.1 3.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.8 1.0 3.3 2.3 75.6 73.3 -1.5 0.1 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 7.6 8.6 4.8 2.9 80.7 77.3 4.2 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 6.3 7.0 4.1 2.6 78.2 75.2 3.2 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 6.7 7.6 3.9 2.7 80.3 76.3 3.4 4.9 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.6 3.6 2.5 76.7 74.5 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.6 3.1 2.3 74.7 73.2 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 7.5 8.3 5.2 3.0 82.9 77.6 4.2 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.2 2.6 1.9 68.7 69.4 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.0 7.7 3.3 2.5 77.8 74.8 3.7 5.4 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 5.2 6.0 4.6 3.1 79.8 76.9 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.0 4.3 3.6 2.2 72.9 71.1 1.3 2.9 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 6.0 7.0 5.2 3.3 81.7 78.3 2.4 3.7 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 2.9 3.1 1.7 1.6 67.1 67.3 0.5 2.0 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 7.0 7.9 5.1 3.0 80.3 77.0 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 5.7 6.7 5.2 3.3 83.6 78.8 1.8 3.5 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 5.8 6.7 5.5 3.3 84.7 78.9 2.5 3.9 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 7.6 8.5 4.9 2.7 78.9 75.2 4.7 5.5 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 5.6 6.4 3.4 2.4 78.6 73.4 2.4 3.1 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 5.4 5.7 2.5 1.9 69.1 70.4 3.2 4.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 6.7 7.6 4.1 2.6 78.9 74.4 3.7 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.7 7.1 2.7 2.0 72.0 69.9 2.6 4.1 6.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 3.9 4.0 2.8 1.9 70.4 69.1 1.0 2.7 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 5.5 6.3 4.9 3.1 79.5 77.2 1.6 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------