***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 3.5 2.1 65.6 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.5 3.4 2.3 68.0 64.9 0.9 4.0 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 8.3 8.5 3.9 2.2 68.7 63.8 1.9 5.8 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 4.3 3.7 1.8 1.8 65.3 62.4 -2.0 1.4 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.5 6.2 2.4 1.7 64.9 61.1 1.9 4.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 1.1 1.0 59.1 56.5 1.0 3.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.1 6.6 3.2 2.2 64.8 64.4 0.5 3.2 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.2 1.9 1.8 1.2 61.1 57.6 -1.0 1.3 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 9.3 3.2 1.8 65.7 61.1 2.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.2 2.5 1.4 63.2 58.6 1.2 4.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.9 2.4 1.6 63.8 60.2 1.7 4.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.9 2.2 1.4 63.0 59.0 2.2 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.8 1.6 1.2 61.6 57.9 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.5 3.5 1.9 67.4 61.9 1.6 6.1 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.3 6.5 2.2 2.0 66.6 64.2 0.8 3.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.2 1.9 1.4 63.6 59.6 2.4 5.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.0 3.3 2.2 67.4 64.9 0.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.2 3.9 2.1 1.1 60.2 56.7 0.8 2.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.7 7.5 3.7 2.4 69.7 65.0 0.7 4.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -0.8 2.3 0.3 0.5 54.6 53.1 -0.7 2.0 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.5 3.6 2.0 68.4 62.5 2.0 5.0 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 6.9 7.5 3.7 2.4 70.7 65.7 0.7 3.3 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.7 7.2 4.0 2.3 70.2 64.6 0.9 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.1 3.3 1.7 64.9 60.5 2.0 6.7 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.8 2.2 1.7 63.4 61.9 1.7 3.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.6 1.3 1.1 60.3 57.2 1.8 4.3 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.3 7.6 2.8 1.8 63.4 62.1 2.0 4.3 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 7.4 8.1 2.2 1.9 66.8 63.0 1.9 3.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.0 3.9 1.3 0.8 56.6 55.0 0.1 2.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 6.4 7.3 3.5 2.3 66.3 64.6 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------