***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.7 2.8 75.4 74.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.5 -0.8 3.0 78.2 76.9 -4.0 -2.5 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 0.8 1.5 -0.8 3.0 81.0 77.0 -1.9 -0.7 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 -4.4 -4.0 -4.1 1.9 69.3 66.6 -7.3 -5.7 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 -1.9 -1.3 -2.9 2.5 76.6 72.0 -3.7 -3.2 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -3.6 -3.3 -5.4 1.7 63.4 64.5 -4.6 -3.9 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 -1.1 -0.7 -0.8 2.9 77.3 76.1 -4.1 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -5.9 -5.6 -3.8 2.6 75.0 72.3 -8.3 -6.9 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 -0.6 0.3 -1.9 2.8 81.1 75.3 -3.2 -2.2 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 -1.6 -1.0 -3.0 2.8 77.3 74.1 -4.0 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 -1.8 -1.0 -3.0 2.7 78.0 73.8 -4.2 -3.3 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 -2.7 -2.1 -3.4 2.7 76.0 72.4 -4.6 -3.9 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 -2.3 -1.7 -3.6 2.7 75.5 72.8 -4.1 -3.3 -2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 -0.5 0.1 -1.9 3.2 81.1 77.6 -2.8 -1.5 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -1.4 -0.7 -3.7 1.8 67.5 66.8 -4.6 -2.9 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -0.8 -3.6 2.6 76.2 73.0 -3.2 -2.3 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 -1.5 -0.8 -0.6 3.0 80.0 77.3 -4.2 -2.7 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -3.7 -3.2 -3.7 2.8 73.0 72.8 -6.7 -5.1 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.5 -0.8 3.0 79.2 77.7 -3.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -6.4 -6.1 -4.9 2.5 72.3 72.2 -9.3 -7.9 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 -1.0 -0.3 -1.2 2.8 80.0 75.6 -3.5 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 -1.6 -0.7 -0.4 3.2 81.3 78.9 -4.2 -2.7 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 -1.3 -0.5 -1.0 3.0 81.9 78.6 -3.3 -2.3 -1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 -1.4 -1.0 -2.3 2.9 77.5 75.2 -3.9 -2.5 -2.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 -1.0 -0.8 -2.6 2.4 74.2 71.8 -3.4 -2.5 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 -2.2 -2.0 -3.9 2.3 71.5 69.9 -4.1 -2.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.5 2.7 75.3 73.7 -3.8 -1.7 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 -2.3 -2.1 -3.9 1.9 68.6 67.2 -5.2 -3.3 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 -3.8 -3.6 -4.4 2.6 72.6 72.0 -5.2 -4.9 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 -0.5 -0.1 -0.8 2.9 77.7 76.5 -3.5 -2.0 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------