***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 42.9 49.0 50.4 119.8 69.2 62.5 16.5 23.2 44.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 34.1 32.5 37.8 102.7 55.4 52.8 23.4 29.8 43.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 51.8 52.0 50.1 120.0 68.0 62.4 26.1 39.8 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 54.8 62.1 61.8 131.5 73.0 67.1 29.3 37.7 57.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 55.5 60.4 67.1 141.3 80.1 73.3 30.5 43.9 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 40.0 40.8 56.4 127.7 71.8 67.0 24.2 29.0 37.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 36.6 38.8 37.6 103.7 56.5 53.8 20.9 33.0 43.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 56.8 64.4 64.3 124.3 70.4 65.3 34.6 52.0 63.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 41.0 46.4 64.8 136.0 78.6 71.1 19.5 30.0 41.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 46.5 52.2 69.3 136.7 78.4 71.9 23.7 36.7 41.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 49.3 52.8 62.4 132.9 73.5 69.5 24.9 37.9 49.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 36.8 42.5 55.7 119.4 66.0 62.3 28.3 33.9 42.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 52.3 60.2 66.8 137.3 78.0 72.6 24.6 34.5 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 63.7 62.8 64.3 125.4 70.5 66.2 37.3 49.7 57.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 42.4 47.1 45.1 103.3 58.4 51.2 14.0 37.4 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 46.4 50.9 61.8 133.5 74.2 69.9 20.8 35.8 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 31.7 26.0 34.6 95.0 51.3 48.7 21.8 26.0 36.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 47.1 54.2 73.2 138.2 78.7 73.1 22.3 32.7 42.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 39.1 41.7 39.5 103.8 56.2 53.3 21.7 35.4 46.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 54.6 56.2 79.4 120.7 68.5 64.0 27.3 45.2 55.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 49.8 57.5 59.1 130.0 75.5 67.8 24.4 34.5 48.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 39.0 34.5 34.9 91.5 48.3 46.3 22.2 35.0 47.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 37.4 38.2 44.0 107.9 59.0 55.7 18.9 33.5 42.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 50.2 53.2 65.3 134.4 76.3 70.6 31.7 42.8 50.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 56.0 62.9 66.2 137.7 79.8 71.3 23.3 41.0 58.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.9 41.9 57.0 122.3 69.7 64.3 17.0 25.0 39.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 55.7 60.1 56.8 128.1 73.7 66.6 18.7 42.5 54.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 36.3 46.4 52.5 119.4 66.7 60.6 21.1 31.6 46.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 69.6 74.5 74.7 131.8 75.5 70.0 39.4 55.6 68.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 35.3 36.7 40.6 107.4 58.2 55.4 16.9 31.1 41.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------