***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.6 9.9 89.5 55.9 50.0 0.0 1.3 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.7 8.6 87.7 58.3 49.1 0.3 2.6 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 3.6 5.4 10.3 96.4 59.9 51.3 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.5 11.1 93.9 57.1 50.7 2.4 4.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.4 3.9 11.3 96.6 57.3 50.8 1.2 3.8 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.4 10.8 97.6 58.8 52.2 0.6 1.5 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.8 3.2 8.5 86.4 57.4 48.6 0.2 1.7 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.8 10.0 12.8 98.7 60.0 52.8 3.2 7.5 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 3.5 4.4 12.0 99.0 57.2 51.6 0.8 2.2 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 12.8 100.9 59.3 52.8 2.0 3.5 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.2 11.5 101.1 59.1 52.6 1.0 4.0 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.4 11.5 98.7 59.6 52.9 0.6 3.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.4 11.6 96.6 58.7 52.1 1.0 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.5 12.8 97.0 56.3 50.7 2.2 4.2 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.0 6.0 11.0 95.8 60.5 50.8 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.6 11.2 98.7 58.8 52.1 1.2 2.5 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.7 7.8 79.4 53.1 45.3 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.5 13.6 100.9 60.2 53.0 2.0 3.3 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.6 9.0 89.9 58.3 49.7 0.6 2.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.4 16.7 92.9 59.5 51.2 3.1 5.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.8 11.0 96.1 55.9 50.7 0.7 3.0 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.1 2.2 7.8 77.7 51.5 44.8 0.0 2.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.4 3.0 9.9 94.4 58.6 50.9 0.2 2.3 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.0 12.4 101.2 59.4 52.5 1.3 4.0 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.5 1.8 11.1 89.4 54.5 49.6 0.3 1.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 2.9 2.7 10.4 87.0 54.8 49.6 0.9 1.9 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 3.3 4.2 10.4 88.8 56.2 49.7 0.0 1.7 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.6 10.6 96.1 59.4 51.0 1.1 3.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.6 14.4 97.6 60.3 52.2 3.4 7.3 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.3 9.2 90.9 61.8 50.7 0.3 1.2 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------