***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.6 12.5 115.7 63.0 51.5 1.0 3.6 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 5.9 9.8 99.9 59.6 48.2 1.0 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.7 12.6 118.2 65.2 52.0 2.5 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 10.4 14.4 128.7 67.6 54.5 1.8 5.1 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.2 13.6 122.4 66.3 51.8 4.1 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.9 7.4 12.8 120.3 69.1 53.4 1.5 3.9 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.8 5.3 9.4 98.2 58.7 47.9 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.3 15.3 127.0 68.7 54.8 3.5 7.9 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.1 15.3 131.8 68.8 56.0 1.6 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 12.1 15.4 128.4 69.0 54.7 2.0 5.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.1 13.7 127.5 68.4 55.5 0.8 4.8 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.0 9.0 14.0 129.3 70.4 56.2 1.6 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.9 14.0 126.6 71.4 55.9 1.5 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.9 16.5 128.3 69.3 53.9 3.2 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 8.4 14.1 130.0 70.2 54.2 0.9 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.7 10.0 13.6 128.1 70.0 56.3 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.1 9.0 92.1 57.4 46.9 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.2 8.6 16.7 131.5 70.4 55.3 2.2 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.6 6.4 10.5 104.2 62.0 49.1 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.4 14.7 19.7 121.4 68.0 53.0 1.8 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.3 9.0 14.2 127.4 66.3 54.3 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.0 9.9 96.7 59.8 47.3 1.9 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.0 8.4 11.9 111.8 66.5 50.8 2.4 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.2 15.7 131.5 69.4 55.2 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.2 8.9 13.9 118.5 63.4 51.7 1.4 4.2 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.0 13.1 116.8 65.5 51.9 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.1 6.0 12.8 114.3 61.7 51.4 1.1 4.2 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.5 9.4 13.9 131.3 70.2 55.3 0.2 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 2.6 16.6 17.8 129.2 70.0 54.4 2.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.5 5.8 10.5 104.3 61.9 48.8 1.3 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------