***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.4 10.9 104.0 59.9 51.9 3.8 5.4 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.7 9.6 108.2 63.6 51.5 3.0 6.6 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.9 11.3 104.8 60.2 52.3 5.6 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.6 13.2 104.9 61.9 53.2 5.8 10.3 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.5 11.7 93.3 56.8 49.6 7.4 9.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.8 10.6 93.9 58.1 50.5 4.0 6.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.5 9.4 108.1 63.5 51.5 2.9 8.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.2 13.1 95.4 59.5 52.5 8.2 14.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.4 10.4 14.5 114.1 65.9 57.3 5.4 8.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.2 12.6 96.2 59.8 51.9 5.8 9.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.6 12.7 101.1 59.4 53.0 5.5 9.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.5 12.9 102.1 61.1 54.3 5.0 7.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 14.1 13.3 106.5 60.9 54.5 6.4 9.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.8 17.7 14.7 112.8 63.3 53.8 6.6 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.2 12.5 12.3 106.0 64.6 54.0 1.3 7.1 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.7 11.6 12.9 106.7 61.8 54.5 5.9 8.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.8 11.7 9.7 113.3 65.3 53.7 3.6 5.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.6 14.1 103.3 60.5 54.2 2.8 8.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.4 11.1 9.8 105.2 62.4 50.5 3.9 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.9 17.2 98.4 58.7 54.3 4.3 7.0 18.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.4 13.2 108.5 61.6 54.3 4.8 7.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.0 10.0 9.6 107.8 65.2 52.3 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.1 10.1 10.4 103.2 59.6 49.4 2.3 8.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.3 14.7 14.1 110.9 61.9 55.2 5.7 10.7 16.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.5 13.7 12.1 99.1 58.9 49.2 5.6 10.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.5 11.0 88.8 54.7 48.1 4.7 6.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.4 11.5 105.3 61.3 51.5 4.0 7.1 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.6 12.2 104.2 63.6 53.6 2.6 8.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.7 14.8 102.4 60.5 53.7 8.5 12.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.6 7.8 9.7 105.0 61.0 50.4 4.1 6.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------