***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 15.9 25.1 17.0 176.6 80.2 74.3 4.1 5.6 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.9 15.9 9.8 117.7 68.1 61.2 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.4 25.5 15.9 165.5 79.3 72.2 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 19.2 24.5 23.1 201.7 85.5 80.0 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 19.3 33.2 30.6 248.6 93.9 87.0 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 17.0 23.6 22.2 198.0 84.6 80.2 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.0 19.9 10.4 126.2 69.4 62.9 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 22.9 27.2 23.0 173.7 80.8 75.4 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 14.1 23.1 23.0 205.2 88.6 81.0 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 14.1 30.4 28.5 221.1 91.7 84.5 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 21.1 27.5 24.4 199.9 86.8 81.6 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 16.2 19.6 17.3 148.8 75.5 71.1 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 20.2 28.6 27.9 213.2 90.1 84.7 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 23.1 30.0 20.3 167.0 81.5 73.0 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 7.8 6.9 7.7 78.9 56.2 52.0 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 14.2 24.7 24.0 197.0 86.3 81.4 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.4 8.2 97.8 60.4 55.3 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 11.9 26.9 28.7 219.9 92.4 84.8 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 10.5 17.4 10.3 117.9 67.7 61.6 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 18.4 21.6 25.8 169.0 79.8 75.1 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 15.4 19.2 20.6 193.7 85.6 78.4 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 10.6 9.7 7.5 84.9 54.6 51.1 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 9.5 13.5 11.8 123.3 68.5 63.6 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 15.7 24.9 23.1 198.0 87.3 79.5 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 20.9 40.2 29.2 247.7 92.4 86.6 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.2 27.7 22.4 205.0 86.8 81.5 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 20.8 35.3 22.1 212.3 87.3 80.1 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 19.2 20.1 15.7 146.1 72.8 68.2 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 24.8 34.7 27.6 199.2 87.2 80.8 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 15.0 18.3 11.2 133.5 72.0 65.3 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------