***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 4.3 4.4 4.1 0.5 57.3 56.3 2.0 3.8 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.5 4.3 0.6 57.7 57.1 1.6 3.5 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.3 4.3 0.3 53.9 53.9 3.7 5.0 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.1 50.1 51.4 -0.8 0.8 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.6 2.1 -0.2 47.0 48.0 3.0 4.7 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.4 0.8 -0.9 39.4 39.9 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.9 3.9 4.2 0.6 57.4 57.0 1.1 3.4 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.5 -1.1 1.4 -0.8 38.6 40.8 -1.3 0.3 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.2 5.5 3.1 -0.1 47.9 49.3 3.8 5.8 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.0 2.1 -0.6 41.1 43.0 2.9 4.5 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.5 2.3 -0.3 45.5 46.6 3.2 4.9 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.3 1.9 -0.6 41.0 43.0 4.0 5.5 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.7 1.6 -0.7 40.0 42.5 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.3 3.7 -0.2 45.6 47.5 4.0 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.3 3.0 0.8 60.3 60.2 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.0 4.7 1.7 -0.5 43.3 44.7 3.4 5.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.7 4.2 0.5 56.0 56.1 1.0 2.9 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.7 2.2 1.9 -0.8 39.9 41.4 1.4 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.4 5.0 4.4 0.5 57.2 56.6 2.3 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.2 0.6 0.4 -0.9 38.0 38.9 0.3 2.0 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.0 3.8 0.0 49.6 50.7 3.4 5.0 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.5 4.3 0.4 55.9 55.4 2.0 3.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.7 4.5 0.4 55.2 55.3 2.4 4.2 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.6 3.4 -0.3 45.3 46.4 4.5 5.8 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 3.9 3.4 2.6 0.1 51.4 51.7 2.4 3.3 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 3.4 1.1 -0.8 39.4 40.5 3.0 4.4 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.7 3.6 0.3 54.7 53.9 3.4 4.5 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.5 4.0 1.8 0.2 51.1 52.3 2.9 3.7 6.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 1.3 1.6 1.4 -0.8 39.4 41.2 1.0 2.8 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.2 4.2 0.6 58.6 57.3 1.5 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------