***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.1 2.6 3.3 -0.4 41.4 46.9 2.1 3.0 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.5 2.3 3.4 -0.3 43.0 47.6 2.0 2.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 4.5 2.7 3.7 -0.5 41.0 46.2 2.4 3.2 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 0.5 -0.7 40.3 44.9 -2.8 0.9 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.4 2.7 1.5 -0.9 39.2 43.2 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.4 1.1 -0.8 42.9 44.1 2.6 4.1 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.5 2.3 3.5 -0.3 43.2 47.7 1.8 2.6 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.6 -1.0 1.6 -0.6 41.9 44.3 -2.4 -0.3 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.3 2.4 -0.8 39.1 43.4 3.0 4.3 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.5 2.5 2.1 -0.8 41.1 43.6 2.3 3.3 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.6 2.8 1.6 -0.9 40.2 42.5 2.5 3.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.7 3.4 1.7 -0.8 41.3 43.2 2.7 4.6 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.0 2.4 1.2 -0.8 41.7 42.8 2.3 3.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 5.1 2.9 3.4 -0.5 42.7 46.1 2.3 3.6 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.6 1.4 -0.5 41.0 47.1 1.9 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.1 3.5 1.2 -0.9 39.9 42.2 3.0 4.1 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.7 2.1 3.6 -0.3 42.4 47.8 1.3 3.0 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.4 2.5 -0.6 42.5 45.0 1.0 1.6 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.8 2.2 3.6 -0.4 42.9 47.4 1.7 2.6 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.7 0.2 1.2 -0.2 44.9 47.7 -0.6 0.9 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.3 2.9 3.0 -0.7 39.3 44.4 2.7 3.6 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.3 3.6 -0.4 42.6 47.5 1.4 2.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.3 3.9 -0.4 42.8 47.0 1.6 2.5 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.3 3.2 -0.6 41.9 45.0 2.4 4.2 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.8 2.5 1.8 -0.5 41.3 45.6 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.2 3.1 1.3 -0.5 43.7 44.5 2.6 3.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.6 2.5 2.9 -0.4 43.1 46.7 2.2 3.5 4.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.4 3.1 0.8 -0.8 39.9 44.9 2.5 4.9 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 1.0 2.1 -0.4 42.9 46.4 0.5 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.6 2.1 3.3 -0.3 42.6 47.6 1.9 2.7 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------