***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.5 3.6 0.1 50.4 50.1 1.4 3.4 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.1 3.6 0.2 49.7 51.1 1.1 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.1 3.9 0.0 47.5 49.0 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.9 -0.1 1.0 0.0 47.3 49.2 -2.0 0.8 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.9 2.9 1.9 -0.3 45.9 47.0 1.8 3.6 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.4 2.7 1.4 -0.4 45.2 46.4 1.4 3.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.3 2.3 3.6 0.2 50.2 51.1 0.8 2.3 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.7 0.2 1.7 -0.4 43.9 46.2 -1.3 0.6 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.3 3.5 2.7 -0.4 45.0 46.7 2.1 4.8 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.4 2.1 -0.5 43.4 45.9 1.3 3.4 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.3 2.9 2.0 -0.3 44.6 46.8 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.3 3.3 1.9 -0.4 44.0 46.7 1.7 4.6 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.2 1.4 -0.4 44.5 46.5 2.1 4.6 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.6 3.4 3.1 -0.6 44.0 45.8 1.9 6.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.1 2.1 0.4 52.8 53.0 1.2 2.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.4 3.9 1.6 -0.4 44.8 46.6 2.5 5.3 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.5 2.4 3.6 0.1 50.2 50.4 0.7 2.3 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.8 1.6 2.2 -0.5 43.0 45.9 0.8 1.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.1 3.8 3.7 0.1 48.9 50.4 0.9 3.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.2 2.1 0.9 -0.2 45.5 47.7 -1.4 2.6 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.6 3.3 -0.2 47.8 47.8 2.3 3.9 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.1 2.3 3.6 -0.1 47.5 49.6 0.8 2.7 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.3 3.9 -0.1 48.0 48.8 1.1 2.7 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.8 3.6 3.0 -0.5 43.4 46.2 2.1 6.7 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.2 2.8 2.1 0.0 48.6 49.0 1.7 2.8 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.7 1.5 -0.2 45.4 47.3 1.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.4 3.1 0.1 49.5 49.5 2.4 3.4 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.0 47.8 49.3 1.2 3.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.2 2.5 1.8 -0.4 44.3 46.5 -0.3 3.1 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.5 3.5 0.2 49.3 51.1 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------