***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.4 3.8 0.6 51.9 53.5 0.7 4.2 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.6 4.2 4.0 0.7 53.9 54.0 1.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.9 4.1 0.5 52.1 52.7 2.2 5.6 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 48.5 49.6 -1.5 1.0 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.0 1.9 -0.2 43.4 47.2 2.2 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.4 2.9 0.3 -0.9 39.1 41.1 2.0 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.1 3.9 0.6 53.5 53.4 0.7 3.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.6 -2.0 0.9 -1.0 37.6 41.1 -2.3 -1.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.2 2.9 0.0 46.5 49.0 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.0 1.6 -0.7 40.8 43.8 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.2 2.1 -0.3 43.4 46.2 2.4 4.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.2 1.4 -0.7 38.6 42.6 3.6 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 3.0 1.3 -0.7 38.4 42.4 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.3 3.3 -0.3 46.2 47.0 2.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.2 3.1 1.0 57.7 57.3 1.0 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.1 1.3 -0.5 40.4 43.9 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.8 3.9 0.6 54.0 53.4 0.8 3.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 1.4 1.3 -0.9 38.7 42.3 1.2 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.0 5.0 4.1 0.7 53.7 54.0 0.7 4.7 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.1 35.3 40.0 -1.5 2.2 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.5 3.7 0.2 48.3 50.4 3.0 5.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.2 4.1 0.6 53.3 53.6 0.9 4.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.4 5.1 4.2 0.6 53.1 53.4 0.8 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.8 3.0 -0.3 45.0 46.6 3.4 6.9 8.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.4 2.5 0.2 47.5 49.8 1.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 4.9 2.7 0.6 -0.9 36.7 40.3 2.3 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.4 3.3 0.4 49.7 51.6 1.5 5.4 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.4 1.7 0.2 49.7 50.6 2.3 5.4 7.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.7 1.2 0.8 -0.9 38.0 41.9 0.2 1.6 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.5 4.3 4.0 0.7 53.5 54.0 1.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------