***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 4.3 6.1 5.6 1.7 66.5 65.2 2.6 3.7 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.6 6.6 6.0 1.8 70.5 68.5 2.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 5.2 5.9 5.7 1.3 58.2 60.1 3.3 4.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 0.4 0.5 2.1 0.9 55.8 57.0 -0.3 0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 97 3 100 4.5 4.1 3.3 0.4 48.3 50.7 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.6 1.7 0.5 -1.4 36.0 36.6 1.3 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 5.5 6.8 5.8 1.8 71.0 68.8 1.7 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -1.9 1.4 -1.2 35.4 36.8 -2.0 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 5.8 6.0 4.5 0.8 52.6 54.6 3.0 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 5.5 3.9 2.5 -0.6 40.8 42.1 1.7 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 5.7 4.4 3.6 0.2 46.1 48.2 2.7 5.5 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 5.6 4.0 2.4 -0.4 40.0 41.9 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 95 5 100 5.0 3.9 2.6 -0.7 39.9 40.7 2.6 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 5.2 4.9 5.1 0.4 48.3 50.1 3.9 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 5.9 5.9 5.3 2.5 75.2 75.3 1.8 3.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 97 3 100 5.4 4.8 2.7 -0.1 44.4 45.6 3.7 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 3.4 5.3 5.7 1.6 67.9 67.2 1.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.6 1.0 1.8 -1.1 36.6 37.7 0.9 3.2 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 47 53 100 6.0 6.8 6.0 1.8 69.2 66.7 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -2.2 29.5 30.0 -0.2 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 4.8 4.7 5.3 0.9 52.9 55.0 3.2 4.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 3.6 5.5 6.0 1.6 66.2 65.0 2.3 3.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 4.7 5.1 6.0 1.7 66.1 64.3 2.1 4.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 5.8 4.7 4.4 0.0 44.6 47.2 3.9 5.3 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 96 4 100 4.1 4.7 4.2 0.9 54.5 55.8 2.2 4.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 4.9 3.3 0.9 -1.3 36.7 36.9 2.8 4.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 5.7 6.1 4.9 1.2 59.9 60.4 3.5 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 4.4 5.3 3.3 1.2 59.7 60.7 2.1 4.1 5.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 1.9 -0.3 1.1 -1.4 34.7 36.0 -0.4 1.2 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 5.6 6.6 5.9 1.8 69.6 68.0 2.2 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------