***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.1 2.4 2.4 4.3 93.4 91.8 -3.9 -1.8 -0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.2 2.2 4.1 93.9 91.1 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.4 3.8 2.5 4.2 92.8 91.6 -2.5 0.2 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.0 -0.7 0.0 4.3 94.6 93.8 -7.1 -5.8 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 0.0 1.6 0.9 4.1 89.4 88.1 -4.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -1.0 0.5 -2.0 3.6 86.6 84.8 -5.3 -2.7 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 1.0 2.2 2.1 3.9 91.7 89.7 -4.0 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 -5.6 -4.6 -1.7 3.4 85.2 83.1 -9.1 -6.8 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.4 3.3 1.7 5.1 95.6 95.2 -4.3 -0.8 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 0.6 1.7 -0.5 4.1 88.4 87.5 -4.1 -2.4 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.8 0.8 4.6 93.2 92.0 -4.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 -0.8 0.9 -0.8 3.5 86.5 84.5 -5.6 -2.7 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -0.3 2.3 -0.3 4.0 89.9 88.3 -4.4 -2.3 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.9 1.8 1.3 4.6 92.8 92.3 -2.5 -0.8 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -0.2 3.0 2.5 5.5 99.2 98.7 -5.2 -2.8 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.5 0.1 4.3 92.6 91.4 -3.7 -0.7 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 0.2 1.3 2.1 3.9 90.9 88.9 -3.7 -2.2 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 -2.1 -0.7 -1.3 3.6 83.0 82.6 -5.7 -3.7 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.1 2.2 4.2 94.8 92.2 -2.7 -1.7 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 48 52 100 -5.0 -4.6 -3.6 2.1 66.0 66.6 -9.8 -7.2 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 1.0 3.4 2.4 4.6 94.1 93.2 -4.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 -0.1 1.3 2.3 3.8 92.5 89.6 -3.6 -2.1 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.7 2.1 4.3 95.2 93.6 -2.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 0.8 1.6 1.2 4.5 93.9 92.8 -4.1 -1.2 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 0.0 1.1 1.7 3.9 90.0 89.7 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 -1.5 -0.8 -2.1 2.4 69.6 69.9 -4.6 -3.2 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 2.3 3.8 2.0 4.0 89.8 88.4 -4.1 -1.1 1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 -0.9 1.0 0.9 4.9 95.1 94.4 -5.8 -2.9 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 -1.9 -1.3 -2.4 3.5 83.3 81.7 -6.7 -4.5 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.2 2.4 2.3 4.1 93.6 91.1 -3.8 -1.7 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------