***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 32.1 69.3 27.8 31.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 17.5 26.0 32.0 76.5 36.9 37.2 23.4 29.8 43.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 26.1 22.1 33.0 71.6 30.6 32.7 26.1 39.8 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 23.7 29.1 34.5 71.8 31.2 32.9 29.3 37.7 57.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 27.2 21.6 34.1 71.0 28.0 31.7 30.5 43.9 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 17.7 23.1 32.8 73.3 28.8 33.5 24.2 29.0 37.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.7 23.3 31.7 76.9 36.9 37.2 20.9 33.0 43.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 35.7 37.3 38.7 77.9 35.3 36.9 34.6 52.0 63.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 19.1 16.3 35.6 71.4 28.3 32.0 19.5 30.0 41.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 24.4 23.7 39.0 75.8 33.0 34.9 23.7 36.7 41.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 22.0 24.6 32.2 72.1 32.1 33.4 24.9 37.9 49.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 20.0 28.5 32.4 74.2 33.3 34.9 28.3 33.9 42.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 23.2 22.8 32.4 72.9 29.9 33.1 24.6 34.5 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 33.0 34.9 40.8 75.8 31.4 34.4 37.3 49.7 57.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.7 22.6 34.7 75.1 39.3 37.3 14.0 37.4 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 20.5 20.3 30.5 70.2 28.0 31.7 20.8 35.8 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.8 25.6 33.1 84.2 42.2 41.5 21.8 26.0 36.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 21.3 22.3 43.9 76.8 32.4 35.2 22.3 32.7 42.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.5 24.5 32.5 75.1 35.1 36.0 21.7 35.4 46.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 29.2 32.6 53.4 81.9 36.8 39.1 27.3 45.2 55.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 21.6 23.5 34.4 70.9 29.0 32.0 24.4 34.5 48.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.1 28.4 34.9 83.6 39.7 41.1 22.2 35.0 47.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 22.9 19.4 34.0 73.8 33.5 34.4 18.9 33.5 42.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 29.3 30.9 39.1 74.2 32.3 33.7 31.7 42.8 50.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 23.6 21.4 35.7 68.7 27.3 30.0 23.3 41.0 58.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 16.7 16.8 33.4 76.6 32.4 35.9 17.0 25.0 39.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 22.0 16.3 34.1 68.7 28.1 30.4 18.7 42.5 54.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 18.9 22.4 33.3 73.8 36.3 35.2 21.1 31.6 46.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 38.4 39.2 47.8 78.8 32.8 36.8 39.4 55.6 68.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 19.7 16.9 31.7 73.4 33.7 34.8 16.9 31.1 41.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------