***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.4 78.6 43.7 43.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.7 7.5 78.1 50.8 42.9 0.3 2.6 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 0.9 1.6 8.6 81.4 45.3 43.8 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 4.8 9.0 76.4 51.5 43.5 2.4 4.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.6 9.4 81.3 47.6 45.5 1.2 3.8 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.5 1.2 9.3 78.5 48.8 44.7 0.6 1.5 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.6 7.3 76.9 49.5 42.7 0.2 1.7 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.0 10.7 87.3 55.4 49.9 3.2 7.5 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.6 10.0 84.8 46.6 46.6 0.8 2.2 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.6 11.0 88.5 51.0 49.2 2.0 3.5 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.8 8.9 80.7 49.4 46.8 1.0 4.0 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.4 8.9 81.3 52.9 48.1 0.6 3.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.9 9.0 78.9 47.4 45.9 1.0 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.1 3.7 10.6 85.1 46.1 46.0 2.2 4.2 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.7 8.5 70.9 49.5 42.3 0.6 2.8 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.4 8.3 75.3 48.2 44.8 1.2 2.5 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.5 7.3 82.2 52.0 44.0 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.4 3.3 12.3 91.1 49.5 49.6 2.0 3.3 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.0 2.2 7.9 79.5 49.9 43.3 0.6 2.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.3 14.3 92.1 56.9 50.2 3.1 5.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.2 9.4 83.0 44.9 44.4 0.7 3.0 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.2 7.7 80.6 51.8 43.9 0.0 2.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.1 2.2 8.7 82.2 47.3 44.0 0.2 2.3 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.8 10.6 86.7 45.5 46.7 1.3 4.0 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 0.7 0.4 9.6 79.1 42.3 42.2 0.3 1.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 0.9 2.6 9.1 82.3 54.1 48.0 0.9 1.9 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 0.8 0.3 9.0 77.9 42.6 42.2 0.0 1.7 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.8 8.5 73.0 51.0 43.5 1.1 3.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.4 13.3 92.4 52.0 49.5 3.4 7.3 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.0 7.7 77.5 48.3 42.8 0.3 1.2 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------