***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 78.9 52.5 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.9 8.8 82.4 55.9 47.4 1.0 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.2 9.3 80.4 54.8 46.0 2.5 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.7 9.2 82.9 53.1 46.9 1.8 5.1 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.2 7.5 9.3 82.6 52.5 45.8 4.1 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.4 9.4 89.1 52.1 48.5 1.5 3.9 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.6 8.7 83.0 53.4 46.8 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.1 10.7 87.7 56.4 47.4 3.5 7.9 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.2 9.8 81.6 51.7 45.1 1.6 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.4 10.8 86.0 53.6 46.4 2.0 5.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.2 9.0 86.1 53.8 46.4 0.8 4.8 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.7 6.0 9.1 88.4 55.2 47.4 1.6 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.0 9.3 90.1 54.9 48.0 1.5 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.8 11.9 85.1 55.4 47.2 3.2 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.5 9.0 85.9 58.1 48.5 0.9 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 8.7 88.1 54.4 47.7 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.9 8.6 85.6 56.6 47.6 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.0 12.4 85.3 54.8 47.2 2.2 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.8 9.0 81.4 54.9 47.0 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.6 14.5 83.9 58.8 48.5 1.8 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.5 9.6 80.6 54.0 45.5 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.8 9.1 86.1 56.1 47.7 1.9 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.7 9.5 80.2 52.3 45.7 2.4 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.8 11.3 84.4 55.0 46.9 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.1 10.0 79.1 49.9 45.2 1.4 4.2 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.8 9.5 94.7 59.9 51.5 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.4 9.8 79.6 51.5 45.6 1.1 4.2 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.4 8.9 87.4 55.9 48.5 0.2 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.6 13.6 85.2 56.8 48.0 2.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.6 4.0 8.9 81.1 56.1 46.9 1.3 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------