***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 83.2 52.2 47.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.2 8.9 97.7 60.1 50.9 3.0 6.6 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.6 8.6 87.6 54.3 49.5 5.6 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.4 10.7 8.5 80.8 53.7 47.5 5.8 10.3 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.2 9.2 9.0 83.8 53.7 47.8 7.4 9.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.2 9.2 89.8 52.3 47.5 4.0 6.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.2 8.8 95.9 59.6 50.2 2.9 8.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.5 16.4 10.2 90.2 57.0 49.5 8.2 14.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.3 8.4 9.5 84.1 52.7 47.9 5.4 8.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.9 10.5 10.4 88.1 56.8 48.9 5.8 9.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.3 10.4 8.6 85.8 55.1 48.2 5.5 9.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.0 8.6 88.1 54.2 48.4 5.0 7.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.8 11.1 8.9 89.7 52.8 47.8 6.4 9.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.9 12.5 10.7 91.9 55.1 50.4 6.6 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.3 7.8 77.2 54.7 48.1 1.3 7.1 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.2 8.1 84.0 54.0 47.2 5.9 8.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.8 11.7 9.4 103.3 63.1 52.2 3.6 5.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.2 11.3 85.7 55.4 48.3 2.8 8.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.6 8.8 96.4 58.7 50.7 3.9 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 7.3 12.6 86.9 54.0 48.5 4.3 7.0 18.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.7 9.0 84.5 53.3 48.3 4.8 7.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.7 10.0 9.9 105.3 64.3 53.1 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.1 9.0 93.4 56.6 50.2 2.3 8.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.5 10.1 85.5 53.8 48.7 5.7 10.7 16.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.6 9.0 78.8 49.7 46.1 5.6 10.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.3 8.6 89.1 53.6 48.6 4.7 6.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.8 7.4 8.7 79.8 50.6 45.9 4.0 7.1 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.6 8.1 81.3 54.7 48.5 2.6 8.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.3 12.9 11.9 85.9 54.3 48.5 8.5 12.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.1 8.6 93.4 57.7 50.0 4.1 6.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------