***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 44.7 29.7 26.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.2 5.5 6.8 54.9 39.1 33.6 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 5.4 9.1 6.5 46.0 31.1 26.3 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 5.1 4.1 7.8 53.4 32.5 30.5 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 5.1 6.0 6.5 44.4 25.8 24.1 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 3.3 2.0 4.9 40.4 20.6 22.8 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.5 6.8 57.1 39.6 34.9 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 8.8 10.0 7.2 51.1 27.3 27.0 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.4 1.3 6.3 42.7 25.7 24.0 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 3.7 3.9 6.8 46.3 25.4 25.2 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 2.6 3.2 5.7 43.5 23.3 23.7 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 3.8 2.6 5.7 45.6 23.9 24.6 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 2.4 2.0 5.3 40.9 20.9 22.1 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.5 7.7 7.7 48.6 31.3 28.5 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 3.7 9.4 68.9 45.8 41.2 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 2.1 2.2 5.4 42.0 20.8 22.6 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.4 7.7 69.0 46.3 41.2 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 3.0 4.8 7.8 49.4 28.2 27.1 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.7 6.8 51.7 37.0 32.0 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 5.5 5.8 12.0 66.5 37.0 33.9 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 4.5 5.9 6.4 43.8 30.4 25.1 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.7 7.5 8.2 67.1 43.5 40.8 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.7 4.0 6.8 48.7 31.9 29.7 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.6 7.7 7.1 46.5 28.7 26.6 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 4.4 6.2 7.0 45.0 29.9 25.9 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.8 2.8 6.1 48.0 25.5 25.5 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 2.9 3.5 6.6 44.6 30.3 26.0 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 3.8 7.8 58.7 36.8 34.0 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 9.7 9.7 9.0 54.9 32.2 29.8 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.9 5.2 6.5 49.8 35.9 29.8 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------