***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9999.0 0.0 5.3 2.6 87.3 81.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.5 5.0 2.6 84.6 81.0 1.6 3.5 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.5 5.4 2.5 86.0 80.1 3.7 5.0 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 2.3 3.0 2.6 1.9 82.6 75.6 -0.8 0.8 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 6.5 8.1 3.6 2.2 83.5 77.6 3.0 4.7 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 6.2 7.5 3.4 2.4 87.9 80.9 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 5.6 6.4 5.0 2.6 85.7 81.9 1.1 3.4 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 0.9 1.4 3.6 2.2 83.3 79.4 -1.3 0.3 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 7.8 8.9 4.6 2.3 84.3 78.4 3.8 5.8 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 6.5 7.4 4.2 2.3 83.5 78.9 2.9 4.5 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 6.8 7.8 3.7 2.2 83.3 78.8 3.2 4.9 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 7.2 8.2 3.7 2.2 84.6 79.8 4.0 5.5 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 6.6 8.2 3.8 2.4 88.6 81.9 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 7.9 8.3 5.3 2.5 82.0 80.0 4.0 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 6.5 7.7 2.9 1.9 81.6 76.2 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 7.3 8.9 3.5 2.3 85.6 79.8 3.4 5.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 5.5 6.2 4.8 2.4 84.0 80.3 1.0 2.9 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 4.2 4.6 4.2 2.3 82.6 78.7 1.4 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 6.1 7.2 5.2 2.5 84.1 80.0 2.3 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 3.2 4.3 2.8 2.2 83.1 79.4 0.3 2.0 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 7.0 8.7 5.0 2.4 85.3 79.0 3.4 5.0 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 5.8 6.5 4.9 2.2 80.6 77.8 2.0 3.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 5.9 6.7 5.3 2.4 83.4 79.4 2.4 4.2 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 7.8 9.1 5.1 2.4 82.8 79.1 4.5 5.8 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 6.0 7.0 3.9 2.4 87.7 81.0 2.4 3.3 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 5.8 6.6 3.3 2.2 84.3 81.1 3.0 4.4 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 7.2 8.6 4.7 2.5 87.9 81.9 3.4 4.5 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 6.9 8.3 2.9 1.9 80.4 75.1 2.9 3.7 6.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 4.2 5.1 3.7 2.3 83.7 79.8 1.0 2.8 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 5.9 6.9 5.2 2.6 85.6 81.4 1.5 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------