***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 1.4 63.1 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 5.4 4.4 4.1 1.6 64.5 63.5 2.0 2.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 4.1 5.1 4.4 1.4 61.8 61.6 2.4 3.2 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.0 2.4 2.3 1.4 66.5 63.3 -2.8 0.9 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 6.0 5.3 2.9 1.3 64.2 61.6 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 4.5 4.9 2.1 0.9 56.8 58.7 2.6 4.1 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 5.2 3.6 4.1 1.6 66.2 63.9 1.8 2.6 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.0 60.5 58.5 -2.4 -0.3 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 7.5 5.5 3.7 1.2 60.6 60.1 3.0 4.3 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.1 5.4 3.1 1.1 60.9 59.0 2.3 3.3 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 6.4 5.7 2.8 1.2 64.7 60.7 2.5 3.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.3 2.7 1.0 61.9 58.9 2.7 4.6 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 3.9 3.7 2.4 0.9 59.4 58.4 2.3 3.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.8 4.0 1.3 62.1 60.0 2.3 3.6 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.3 5.7 2.5 1.4 66.5 64.3 1.9 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.6 2.5 1.1 63.3 60.4 3.0 4.1 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.2 4.6 3.9 1.5 66.7 63.3 1.3 3.0 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 2.1 2.2 3.0 1.0 58.2 57.7 1.0 1.6 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 5.9 4.8 4.3 1.5 64.5 62.9 1.7 2.6 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 1.5 1.1 1.4 0.8 55.7 56.7 -0.6 0.9 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.9 4.0 1.3 60.5 60.8 2.7 3.6 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.7 4.9 4.0 1.4 65.9 62.4 1.4 2.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 5.6 4.6 4.4 1.5 65.0 61.9 1.6 2.5 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.2 6.5 3.9 1.2 59.8 59.3 2.4 4.2 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.2 3.7 2.9 1.3 62.6 62.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.0 5.2 2.1 0.8 59.4 58.2 2.6 3.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.3 3.9 3.6 1.3 63.2 62.2 2.2 3.5 4.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.6 6.0 2.5 1.4 66.4 63.2 2.5 4.9 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 2.7 3.2 2.4 1.0 55.6 57.1 0.5 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.5 4.0 4.2 1.6 63.0 63.3 1.9 2.7 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------