***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 6.5 4.0 81.3 81.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 7.0 7.2 6.1 3.9 81.3 81.5 2.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 9.2 9.3 6.5 3.9 78.3 79.1 3.3 4.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 2.9 1.3 2.1 2.1 71.4 72.4 -0.3 0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 8.0 8.1 4.3 3.3 76.5 75.8 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 6.9 8.6 5.2 4.5 85.5 84.9 1.3 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 7.0 7.1 6.1 3.9 82.2 82.3 1.7 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 1.1 1.6 5.1 4.1 83.4 82.9 -2.0 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 9.0 9.6 5.7 3.8 79.9 78.6 3.0 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 8.5 8.9 5.7 4.1 81.6 81.0 1.7 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 8.6 8.9 4.9 3.7 78.3 77.9 2.7 5.5 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 7.9 8.2 5.1 4.0 81.1 81.0 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.2 8.3 6.0 4.6 83.3 83.8 2.6 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 9.8 10.3 7.2 4.5 80.9 80.4 3.9 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 5.0 5.6 2.6 1.9 72.2 73.3 1.8 3.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 8.5 9.0 4.9 3.9 79.6 79.4 3.7 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 6.6 7.4 5.9 3.8 84.4 82.9 1.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.5 5.6 6.0 4.3 79.8 80.9 0.9 3.2 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 7.8 8.0 6.1 3.8 79.0 79.6 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 4.1 4.5 4.8 4.4 85.8 85.7 -0.2 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 8.9 9.2 6.1 3.7 79.0 78.3 3.2 4.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 6.8 7.1 5.7 3.3 79.2 78.3 2.3 3.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 7.6 7.6 6.2 3.7 76.4 77.8 2.1 4.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 10.0 10.1 6.7 4.2 78.3 79.0 3.9 5.3 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 6.5 6.7 5.1 3.7 80.1 80.5 2.2 4.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.8 7.1 4.8 4.0 84.1 83.5 2.8 4.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 8.2 8.9 6.1 4.0 81.1 81.3 3.5 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.1 2.6 2.1 70.3 71.4 2.1 4.1 5.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.2 5.0 5.7 4.7 85.1 84.9 -0.4 1.2 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.3 7.5 6.3 4.0 80.0 81.2 2.2 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------