***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 31.0 23.2 39.0 96.1 50.2 48.2 17.3 23.0 47.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 33.9 33.6 38.5 101.9 56.2 52.4 21.2 28.8 40.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 26.1 39.4 40.4 101.3 54.5 50.4 26.1 36.8 52.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 25.8 38.1 42.9 97.9 50.7 49.6 30.4 37.3 45.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 29.7 44.7 43.6 99.0 53.5 49.7 31.3 41.7 53.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 33.8 28.4 39.9 95.4 47.9 47.7 24.2 29.8 38.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 37.2 36.1 37.6 98.3 54.8 51.0 20.4 33.0 42.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 38.1 52.6 47.6 104.4 56.5 52.7 35.6 49.9 65.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 20.6 30.6 45.2 99.5 52.8 49.5 20.7 30.0 40.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 25.7 38.9 48.2 103.1 55.3 51.6 26.1 36.9 43.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 25.3 39.5 41.7 100.1 53.0 50.1 25.8 38.8 50.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.5 40.7 41.3 100.9 53.6 50.7 29.1 36.1 42.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 41.5 32.4 40.1 94.9 47.2 46.6 26.8 35.2 48.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 34.9 53.5 50.7 111.3 60.3 55.1 37.4 49.1 56.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.4 40.9 41.1 97.6 56.2 50.2 13.3 37.0 54.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 24.7 38.1 39.5 96.8 51.3 48.2 20.6 37.2 46.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 33.7 33.2 37.6 100.0 57.5 53.0 19.4 28.0 36.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 38.2 35.3 53.3 106.5 58.5 53.3 22.9 32.8 42.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 39.4 41.9 39.9 105.5 58.5 53.6 18.9 36.1 47.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 48.8 54.9 62.8 109.7 61.1 56.6 26.1 45.2 55.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 23.7 36.1 42.1 97.9 53.1 48.4 24.4 34.7 48.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 39.4 41.2 40.5 105.3 61.6 55.3 20.0 36.5 45.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 34.0 38.3 42.7 110.0 59.3 54.9 18.9 29.9 40.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 30.3 49.3 48.3 106.4 59.4 52.7 28.5 42.8 52.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 28.7 48.2 44.6 96.1 51.3 48.1 24.5 43.4 59.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 34.2 29.1 39.6 96.1 49.8 48.6 16.9 29.4 40.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 25.8 40.1 42.7 96.0 50.3 48.3 18.7 39.8 56.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 19.9 33.9 40.5 97.1 53.1 49.4 18.2 31.6 45.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 60.6 62.1 57.6 109.1 61.3 54.9 39.4 55.5 68.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 36.3 32.9 38.4 100.3 53.8 51.0 16.3 31.1 42.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------