***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 2.5 3.6 7.7 92.7 65.6 50.7 0.1 1.1 3.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.7 4.0 8.0 105.1 65.4 53.1 0.2 1.0 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.0 5.2 8.3 99.5 64.9 51.7 0.7 1.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.5 9.5 97.7 60.0 49.8 2.4 4.1 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.6 9.8 102.4 61.7 50.0 1.6 4.1 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.9 9.2 95.2 56.1 48.6 0.5 1.9 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.5 7.8 100.1 62.9 52.5 0.2 1.1 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.2 10.9 106.6 60.8 51.1 2.3 7.2 11.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.7 10.2 104.9 61.1 50.2 1.1 3.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.5 11.0 107.1 61.7 51.1 2.5 4.4 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.0 6.4 9.7 106.3 61.4 50.3 1.3 4.0 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.3 4.2 9.7 105.9 60.3 50.1 0.7 2.8 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.1 9.5 99.6 58.5 48.7 1.0 4.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.0 10.2 104.3 62.7 51.5 3.1 4.7 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 2.5 5.5 9.7 97.8 62.6 50.6 0.4 1.1 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 3.5 4.0 9.2 100.7 59.7 49.2 1.0 2.2 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 2.2 3.2 8.1 107.4 62.4 53.4 0.3 1.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.2 11.6 105.4 60.7 51.5 2.5 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 0.5 3.9 8.3 107.2 66.1 53.2 0.3 1.0 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.8 13.5 105.0 58.5 52.1 2.9 4.4 6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.3 5.0 9.1 100.8 60.4 50.4 1.3 2.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.7 3.3 8.4 107.7 64.6 53.3 0.0 1.0 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 0.7 4.2 8.8 108.8 65.9 53.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.8 10.1 103.7 62.1 51.2 1.8 4.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.2 5.9 9.1 96.6 61.9 50.3 0.5 1.5 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 0.7 2.6 9.5 97.5 57.4 48.1 0.8 1.4 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.9 8.4 93.2 63.1 50.2 0.3 1.8 5.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 3.6 4.2 9.5 97.4 60.7 49.7 0.6 2.6 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.1 12.3 104.3 59.7 51.7 3.7 7.1 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.6 7.8 100.6 65.7 52.4 0.2 0.6 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------