***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.1 8.6 91.1 55.3 46.3 1.2 3.7 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.8 8.3 93.1 54.9 48.6 2.0 4.7 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.4 8.8 91.9 57.5 47.1 3.6 7.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.4 10.2 98.3 64.6 48.4 1.9 7.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.4 10.2 96.1 59.9 48.1 2.9 5.9 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.5 7.3 10.4 99.3 65.5 49.9 1.0 3.6 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.6 8.2 90.0 54.0 47.3 1.5 4.0 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.8 11.3 103.8 62.4 51.3 2.6 9.3 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.7 8.0 10.5 94.3 58.5 47.4 1.1 5.3 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.0 11.2 98.0 59.8 49.0 0.8 4.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.2 9.6 95.2 58.8 48.6 0.6 4.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.0 9.0 9.9 100.7 63.5 50.6 1.3 2.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.7 7.5 10.0 98.7 63.9 50.2 1.3 4.4 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.9 10.7 97.3 58.1 48.7 3.4 8.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.6 12.1 9.9 99.9 68.2 49.8 1.1 3.6 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.5 7.5 9.5 96.3 61.0 49.7 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.5 8.4 93.8 57.4 48.9 2.2 4.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.9 6.2 12.3 100.2 61.8 49.5 1.5 4.3 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.2 8.4 94.9 55.4 49.1 2.7 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 12.6 15.0 112.3 65.3 53.7 1.5 6.6 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.0 9.7 92.4 58.4 46.3 2.2 6.2 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.9 8.7 96.6 57.5 50.4 2.2 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.5 8.9 97.2 56.7 49.0 2.5 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.8 8.9 10.6 95.1 59.8 48.0 4.2 7.6 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.6 10.2 95.0 55.7 47.0 1.8 6.3 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.8 8.9 10.0 103.2 65.5 51.1 1.1 3.9 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.0 9.5 92.2 54.1 46.6 1.7 3.7 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 0.9 11.1 9.9 98.1 66.1 49.3 0.2 1.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.1 13.2 104.0 63.3 50.8 2.5 5.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.1 8.3 92.0 54.9 48.1 2.3 4.2 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------