***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.6 16.2 16.0 148.0 75.7 64.5 2.5 7.5 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 5.9 10.5 13.6 130.8 66.8 60.6 2.4 3.8 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 15.7 20.7 16.9 160.6 79.1 67.6 4.7 9.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 16.2 19.2 17.6 161.9 77.1 67.5 7.7 11.2 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 15.9 20.3 18.5 171.8 80.1 71.0 7.6 9.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.4 14.9 16.1 153.2 77.0 70.0 4.2 7.3 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.0 9.4 13.2 126.3 67.7 59.1 1.8 4.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 20.6 27.3 19.7 177.9 81.0 73.8 8.1 11.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 12.4 14.7 19.3 170.2 79.8 71.5 5.0 8.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 12.7 15.2 20.5 177.8 80.8 73.8 7.0 9.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 13.3 15.2 17.6 176.3 80.4 72.4 7.2 10.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.1 15.8 16.9 173.0 80.5 72.9 5.2 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.7 16.3 159.6 75.3 71.2 6.3 12.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 18.4 25.6 21.5 177.6 82.6 71.1 9.1 11.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 14.9 16.4 16.1 150.6 76.1 63.6 0.9 8.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.7 16.5 16.4 167.3 79.0 70.9 6.1 8.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.7 10.7 12.1 117.9 66.2 57.9 2.5 4.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.3 17.9 23.2 181.6 84.0 74.9 6.3 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 7.8 12.8 14.8 142.5 71.1 63.1 3.9 6.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 15.1 19.5 26.0 174.6 83.1 74.0 5.0 7.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.7 17.4 17.9 163.2 79.9 69.7 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.0 10.8 13.5 125.9 68.5 59.5 1.6 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 8.0 12.4 17.1 160.6 78.0 66.9 2.9 7.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.3 21.7 21.1 180.6 83.9 73.2 8.6 9.6 14.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 15.1 17.9 18.3 150.3 77.3 66.2 5.6 10.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 11.6 15.4 16.0 157.8 79.4 70.5 4.6 7.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.4 19.2 17.0 142.9 74.8 63.9 4.2 7.5 11.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 14.6 17.9 16.4 158.8 76.8 66.3 2.6 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 17.2 24.3 24.8 181.4 84.2 74.9 10.6 13.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 8.7 10.7 14.4 137.6 69.9 61.5 2.1 6.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------