***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.6 2.8 6.7 56.0 29.4 31.0 3.5 5.5 9.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.1 8.5 78.9 49.9 43.3 5.2 7.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 4.8 6.3 6.5 56.7 28.5 30.4 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 4.1 3.8 5.6 43.3 21.2 22.0 4.3 6.6 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 3.3 1.5 5.1 39.0 16.6 18.3 8.6 12.1 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 4.4 2.8 4.1 37.1 21.7 21.0 5.6 10.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.1 7.4 8.5 77.3 49.7 43.5 4.8 7.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 9.3 9.4 5.6 42.0 21.9 22.2 11.1 14.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.5 5.1 39.0 17.6 18.8 4.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 3.9 3.5 5.5 40.6 19.8 20.5 5.1 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 3.1 2.2 4.7 38.0 19.0 19.3 6.8 9.1 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 4.1 2.6 4.8 39.3 20.8 20.4 6.7 9.8 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 3.3 2.5 4.3 34.9 16.9 17.5 5.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 5.8 9.5 8.3 65.7 33.2 35.5 9.4 12.5 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.3 1.7 5.3 46.2 29.5 27.5 2.0 4.4 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 3.2 2.2 4.4 36.7 17.4 18.5 5.6 8.7 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.6 9.1 83.2 55.2 47.2 6.4 9.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 3.9 2.5 6.3 44.7 24.6 23.6 5.3 8.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 8.4 8.4 77.5 47.8 41.7 6.0 8.8 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 5.7 8.3 51.0 30.9 28.5 5.8 10.2 15.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 3.1 2.6 5.4 43.3 19.9 21.9 6.3 10.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.5 10.1 10.0 90.5 55.2 48.7 6.0 9.9 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.0 8.1 72.9 41.9 38.8 5.3 8.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.7 4.7 6.5 50.7 25.8 27.0 5.8 9.0 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 4.0 3.6 7.0 49.7 25.5 25.7 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 3.6 2.4 4.2 35.6 15.8 18.9 5.9 8.2 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.5 3.5 7.8 58.8 33.8 32.3 3.5 6.5 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.7 4.8 41.2 22.5 22.7 2.8 5.2 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 10.1 10.7 7.3 49.9 28.0 26.7 11.5 14.6 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.4 7.8 71.3 42.2 38.9 4.7 7.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------