***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.9 4.1 1.1 57.3 57.0 2.0 3.1 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.8 3.6 3.8 1.0 56.8 56.1 1.5 3.0 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.8 4.3 1.0 58.6 57.0 2.3 3.8 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.5 1.4 2.0 0.8 60.2 56.4 -2.2 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.5 2.7 0.9 62.6 56.9 2.6 3.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.1 2.3 1.0 60.5 57.1 2.5 4.1 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 0.5 3.2 3.8 1.1 60.2 56.9 1.6 2.4 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.7 1.4 2.5 0.9 61.4 57.5 -1.8 0.6 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.6 3.6 1.0 63.9 57.2 3.2 4.0 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 1.8 4.6 3.2 1.1 62.8 58.1 2.6 3.5 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.2 2.7 0.9 61.0 57.2 2.5 3.7 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.7 2.5 0.8 59.5 56.4 3.1 4.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.0 2.3 0.8 60.3 56.1 2.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.1 4.2 1.4 64.0 59.1 2.5 4.0 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.9 2.1 0.7 57.3 55.8 2.4 4.6 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.8 2.4 0.9 60.2 56.9 3.4 4.0 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 0.6 2.8 3.7 1.1 58.2 56.5 1.5 2.3 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.6 3.3 1.3 63.9 59.7 0.8 2.0 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.9 4.0 4.0 1.0 56.3 56.2 1.5 3.4 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.7 2.7 1.8 1.2 63.3 59.0 -0.9 0.4 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.8 3.9 1.0 61.5 57.2 2.7 3.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.0 3.7 3.9 1.1 58.7 56.1 1.3 2.8 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.8 3.3 4.3 1.1 56.9 57.2 1.4 2.7 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.0 4.1 1.3 63.9 59.0 2.9 4.4 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.9 2.8 1.0 62.8 57.2 1.8 3.0 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.3 2.1 0.7 57.5 55.4 2.5 3.5 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.0 3.6 1.1 60.5 57.4 2.0 2.9 5.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.7 5.8 2.2 0.7 59.1 56.4 3.0 4.5 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.0 4.6 2.8 1.3 64.1 59.9 0.0 1.7 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 0.5 3.7 3.9 1.0 57.9 56.4 1.1 2.9 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------