***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 0.8 1.5 2.3 -0.7 37.6 42.7 0.9 2.7 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -0.1 1.4 2.3 -0.7 35.1 43.3 1.3 2.3 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.8 2.5 -0.7 38.7 42.9 2.2 3.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -2.9 -0.9 0.5 -0.6 40.3 44.6 -2.1 -0.5 2.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.0 2.9 1.1 -0.6 40.8 44.4 2.3 3.3 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 0.6 2.0 0.7 -0.4 39.0 45.6 1.7 3.6 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 -0.2 0.9 2.2 -0.6 34.8 43.7 0.6 1.9 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.2 -1.1 1.0 -0.6 38.5 44.0 -1.6 -0.5 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.0 1.9 -0.6 41.7 43.9 2.5 4.1 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.2 2.4 1.5 -0.6 40.0 43.8 1.3 2.9 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.1 2.4 1.1 -0.6 38.4 44.3 2.0 3.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.7 1.1 -0.6 38.3 44.1 2.0 4.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.2 3.1 0.8 -0.5 37.5 44.2 2.2 5.2 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 2.1 2.8 2.3 -0.7 40.6 43.1 1.9 4.8 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 0.5 1.7 0.8 -0.6 38.6 44.8 0.6 3.0 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 1.3 3.7 0.9 -0.5 37.8 44.7 3.3 5.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 -0.2 0.8 2.3 -0.5 37.4 44.8 0.3 2.0 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 0.3 1.2 1.5 -0.7 39.8 43.8 0.6 1.9 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 0.3 1.4 2.4 -0.7 36.9 43.2 0.9 2.8 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.5 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 39.4 44.3 -1.8 2.2 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.2 2.2 -0.7 40.9 43.9 2.2 3.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 0.5 1.4 2.5 -0.5 40.0 44.5 0.9 2.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 0.3 1.7 2.6 -0.7 40.2 43.1 0.9 2.7 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.0 2.7 2.3 -0.7 40.9 43.5 2.4 6.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 0.7 1.8 1.0 -0.7 36.9 43.4 1.4 3.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 0.7 3.0 0.6 -0.5 39.1 44.5 2.3 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 0.8 3.3 1.7 -0.7 37.1 43.0 2.4 3.9 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 1.2 2.2 0.8 -0.5 40.1 45.2 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.3 1.3 0.9 -0.7 39.0 43.9 0.0 2.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 0.1 1.0 2.3 -0.7 34.7 42.8 0.8 2.3 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------