***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.1 3.6 3.1 -0.6 44.4 45.2 1.1 5.4 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.7 2.7 2.8 -0.7 37.0 43.8 1.1 4.8 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.9 3.6 3.1 -0.7 40.5 43.9 2.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.5 0.0 1.4 -0.1 46.4 48.5 -1.1 0.8 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.8 1.8 -0.4 44.0 46.3 1.8 5.2 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.7 2.7 1.2 -0.4 38.9 47.1 1.6 3.5 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.7 2.5 2.7 -0.6 37.7 44.4 0.6 4.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -1.7 1.2 -0.7 36.8 44.2 -2.0 -1.1 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.8 2.4 -0.7 41.8 44.4 3.4 6.0 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.9 1.7 -0.9 37.5 43.0 3.2 5.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.5 1.8 -0.3 42.5 46.8 2.3 5.3 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.4 1.7 -0.3 41.3 47.1 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.1 2.7 1.4 -0.3 42.7 47.5 1.6 4.6 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 1.5 4.2 2.2 -1.3 34.5 40.1 4.0 6.2 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.9 1.9 0.2 47.5 50.9 2.2 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.3 1.6 -0.2 44.1 47.9 2.1 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.3 2.7 -0.7 38.9 44.0 0.9 4.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 0.4 0.8 1.2 -1.3 33.9 39.9 0.8 2.6 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 0.7 3.0 2.9 -0.7 37.0 43.5 1.6 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -1.2 -1.9 -0.2 -1.2 32.9 40.1 -1.8 3.3 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.1 2.8 -0.6 42.8 44.9 2.8 6.0 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 0.5 3.9 2.8 -0.7 38.6 43.5 1.6 5.2 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.9 2.9 -0.9 36.8 42.9 1.1 5.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.1 2.3 -1.2 35.3 40.8 3.9 7.0 8.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.4 2.4 1.8 -0.4 42.3 45.8 1.5 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.4 3.1 1.3 -0.2 42.3 48.4 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.0 2.4 -0.5 42.7 45.3 1.8 6.4 8.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.9 1.8 0.1 46.2 49.9 3.3 6.2 7.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -0.9 -0.1 0.5 -1.4 33.0 39.0 0.0 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.8 2.8 2.9 -0.7 38.0 44.1 1.1 4.9 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------