***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.6 8.2 6.6 3.6 84.8 83.9 2.3 3.3 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 7.1 7.6 6.8 4.1 87.3 86.6 1.8 3.3 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.2 9.5 7.0 3.8 83.1 83.3 2.9 4.7 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 3.3 5.9 5.2 4.7 94.7 94.1 -1.3 0.2 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 8.3 9.1 5.8 4.2 87.7 88.0 2.5 4.2 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 7.4 8.4 4.7 3.5 81.9 81.9 1.9 3.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 7.0 7.7 6.6 4.0 88.7 86.3 1.1 3.1 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 0.6 1.8 5.5 3.8 86.4 84.8 -2.4 -0.6 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 9.0 9.8 6.8 4.2 86.8 86.8 2.6 5.6 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 7.8 9.1 6.2 3.9 84.6 83.8 2.5 5.1 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 8.2 10.4 6.0 4.1 87.1 86.4 2.7 5.3 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 7.3 8.7 5.4 3.7 84.5 83.7 3.6 5.1 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 8.2 9.0 5.5 3.6 82.0 81.1 2.9 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 9.2 10.0 7.1 3.7 80.2 80.0 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 6.2 9.9 7.0 5.8 99.1 98.5 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 8.5 9.8 5.2 3.6 83.8 82.9 3.0 5.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 6.5 7.2 6.6 4.2 88.4 87.7 1.7 2.9 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 5.1 5.2 5.5 3.1 76.5 76.7 0.6 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 8.1 8.7 6.9 4.0 86.0 85.4 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 4.4 5.0 4.2 3.1 79.8 78.7 -0.5 1.5 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 8.8 9.6 7.1 4.2 86.4 86.6 3.0 4.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 7.2 7.9 6.7 4.0 87.4 86.3 2.2 3.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.8 8.1 6.9 3.8 84.4 83.3 2.4 4.1 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 9.3 9.7 6.7 3.5 80.1 79.5 3.0 5.9 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.2 7.9 5.9 4.1 89.7 88.9 2.0 3.5 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 6.4 8.3 4.8 3.6 85.9 83.9 2.4 4.5 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 8.5 9.0 6.1 3.6 84.1 84.3 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.4 9.9 6.1 5.1 93.8 93.3 2.2 3.8 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 4.2 4.5 5.0 3.2 78.0 77.8 -0.4 2.4 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 7.2 7.7 6.8 3.9 86.8 84.9 1.8 3.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------