***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.2 -1.6 0.5 54.5 54.6 -3.5 -2.6 -1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.2 -1.6 0.8 56.5 57.7 -3.8 -2.5 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 -0.2 -0.3 -1.9 0.4 52.1 54.1 -1.9 -0.7 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -5.2 -4.8 -4.3 0.9 61.1 59.4 -7.0 -5.7 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.7 -2.9 -4.0 0.6 53.4 55.5 -3.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -3.5 -3.4 -5.2 1.0 59.0 60.2 -5.1 -3.9 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -1.8 -1.5 0.8 58.7 58.2 -3.8 -2.4 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -6.7 -6.7 -4.9 0.8 54.4 56.6 -8.5 -7.0 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.4 -3.2 0.4 50.6 53.5 -3.0 -2.4 -0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -2.9 -4.3 0.6 53.5 54.9 -3.9 -3.2 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -2.6 -3.1 -4.2 0.6 52.5 55.4 -4.2 -3.1 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -3.2 -3.6 -4.5 0.7 50.7 55.9 -5.2 -3.6 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -2.8 -3.1 -4.7 0.7 50.5 56.4 -4.6 -3.1 -2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.5 -3.5 0.2 51.0 52.5 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -2.5 -1.4 -3.5 1.0 61.3 61.5 -4.8 -3.1 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.0 -4.7 0.7 52.1 56.1 -3.6 -2.2 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -4.5 -2.4 -1.4 0.9 59.8 59.0 -4.1 -2.6 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -4.7 -4.8 -5.0 0.6 56.2 55.4 -7.0 -5.2 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 0.7 54.6 56.3 -3.8 -2.0 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -7.2 -6.9 -6.0 0.8 61.2 57.8 -9.5 -7.7 -5.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.3 -2.3 0.4 52.0 54.1 -3.6 -2.6 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -2.3 -1.6 0.8 56.3 57.4 -4.2 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 0.4 52.1 53.8 -3.6 -2.2 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -2.5 -3.6 0.4 54.0 54.0 -3.5 -2.5 -1.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.3 -3.3 0.6 58.5 57.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -2.8 -3.0 -4.3 0.8 54.0 58.6 -4.2 -3.2 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -1.6 -2.4 0.6 56.9 56.0 -4.1 -1.8 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -3.1 -3.2 -4.0 0.9 60.1 59.9 -4.9 -3.4 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 -4.5 -4.5 -5.5 0.7 57.6 56.9 -5.5 -4.8 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -1.8 -1.6 0.7 54.9 56.5 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------