***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.1 -1.2 0.3 50.6 50.8 -4.6 -1.2 0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -2.0 -1.7 0.1 48.0 49.0 -4.1 -1.5 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 -2.8 -0.4 -1.6 0.2 47.1 50.0 -2.5 -0.2 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -3.7 -4.1 -4.1 0.7 50.9 54.9 -7.9 -4.1 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -2.6 -3.7 0.4 46.5 52.2 -3.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -3.1 -4.7 1.0 51.2 56.8 -4.9 -3.1 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.4 -1.6 0.2 48.7 49.8 -4.3 -1.1 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -6.2 -7.1 -4.5 0.6 46.9 52.8 -9.7 -6.8 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -2.0 -2.9 0.1 44.5 49.9 -3.6 -1.5 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.5 -4.0 0.3 45.7 50.8 -3.3 -2.3 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -5.2 -2.6 -3.7 0.6 46.9 53.7 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -5.5 -3.0 -3.8 0.9 49.9 55.6 -5.0 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.1 -4.0 1.0 54.1 56.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -3.6 -2.7 -3.5 -0.3 41.9 47.2 -3.2 -0.8 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -1.5 -1.3 -3.3 0.9 51.8 56.8 -3.1 -2.0 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -1.9 -4.0 0.9 49.7 55.6 -2.8 -1.9 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 0.1 48.0 48.4 -4.2 -1.6 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -7.1 -4.3 -4.9 0.1 45.9 49.4 -6.0 -3.8 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.7 -1.8 0.1 45.6 49.0 -3.7 -1.5 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -11.1 -7.7 -6.2 0.1 43.9 49.2 -9.6 -6.8 -4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.9 -1.9 0.2 48.7 50.2 -3.7 -1.8 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -2.0 -1.7 0.0 44.6 47.7 -4.0 -1.4 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -2.5 -2.1 0.0 43.0 49.4 -3.9 -1.7 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -4.6 -2.3 -3.4 0.0 45.9 49.0 -4.0 -2.1 -0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 -4.6 -1.4 -3.1 0.6 53.6 53.8 -3.0 -1.6 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -2.4 -3.8 1.0 57.7 57.4 -3.6 -2.7 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.4 -2.0 0.4 51.8 52.3 -4.3 -0.7 0.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -2.4 -2.8 -3.7 0.8 50.2 56.0 -4.8 -2.9 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -7.2 -5.7 -5.5 0.1 45.0 49.2 -6.9 -5.0 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 0.2 48.0 49.5 -4.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------