***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 -0.2 0.0 0.3 2.2 73.2 73.8 -3.7 -1.6 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 0.1 1.0 0.9 3.2 83.5 81.8 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 1.7 2.1 0.2 2.4 72.3 73.7 -1.9 -0.5 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.3 -1.1 -0.9 4.1 93.9 93.2 -7.3 -5.6 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 0.2 1.2 -1.1 3.0 80.9 80.6 -3.7 -1.8 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -0.9 0.5 -2.5 3.8 84.3 84.5 -5.0 -3.6 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 0.4 1.5 0.9 3.2 83.7 81.7 -3.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 -5.6 -5.9 -2.2 3.3 75.3 75.9 -9.0 -7.0 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 0.9 0.8 -0.9 2.4 74.7 74.8 -3.8 -1.2 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 0.6 0.3 -1.7 2.9 73.6 74.0 -4.2 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 0.7 1.1 -1.6 2.9 77.8 77.2 -4.4 -2.2 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 -0.8 -0.8 -2.0 2.9 72.8 74.2 -4.5 -3.6 -1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 -0.4 -0.3 -2.2 2.8 71.4 71.9 -4.5 -2.5 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 0.3 0.4 -0.8 2.6 71.5 72.0 -2.6 -1.0 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.9 0.4 4.4 96.4 96.0 -4.7 -3.2 -2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 0.4 0.6 -2.1 2.9 76.9 76.5 -3.4 -1.5 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 0.0 0.7 1.1 3.5 86.3 84.3 -3.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 -2.1 -2.5 -2.2 3.2 70.9 72.4 -5.5 -3.4 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 0.1 0.4 0.6 3.0 80.5 79.7 -2.6 -1.8 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 -4.1 -4.2 -3.2 3.4 73.1 73.8 -9.0 -7.3 -4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 0.6 1.1 0.0 2.4 76.7 75.4 -3.9 -1.3 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 -0.2 0.4 0.9 3.2 83.3 81.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 2.4 75.1 75.7 -2.8 -1.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.1 2.7 72.1 73.1 -4.3 -2.0 -0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 0.2 0.5 -0.3 3.0 85.4 84.0 -3.0 -1.8 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 -0.6 -0.4 -1.5 3.5 77.0 78.8 -3.9 -3.1 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 2.4 3.0 0.0 2.5 78.9 77.7 -3.5 -0.7 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.6 -0.2 -0.5 4.1 92.2 91.8 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 -2.4 -2.3 -2.8 3.5 73.1 74.7 -6.6 -5.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 0.4 0.6 0.7 2.9 79.6 78.8 -3.4 -1.7 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------