***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 31.1 33.1 43.6 102.5 58.3 54.2 17.5 25.4 49.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 32.3 38.9 41.6 111.6 61.1 58.0 21.8 28.5 40.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 40.7 39.1 43.6 103.5 58.0 54.9 28.7 36.5 54.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 40.4 44.4 53.2 113.7 65.5 57.7 29.3 35.8 46.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 44.7 46.4 50.4 105.0 58.5 53.1 33.4 40.8 47.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 33.0 29.8 45.8 102.3 55.3 51.0 24.3 29.2 38.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 36.7 39.7 41.2 112.1 60.6 58.0 19.5 33.4 42.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 54.3 54.5 54.7 108.3 59.1 53.6 43.4 49.2 61.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 31.9 29.2 51.0 105.1 58.6 53.4 20.5 27.3 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 38.8 38.1 54.1 106.3 58.8 52.8 24.2 35.0 40.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 37.6 41.6 49.7 105.8 56.8 52.7 28.2 33.6 46.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 37.0 40.6 49.6 108.8 58.9 54.1 29.8 33.6 42.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 39.1 38.4 50.3 104.5 55.8 52.3 28.4 34.3 44.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 53.9 56.5 56.7 110.1 62.9 57.3 36.6 50.5 57.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 39.4 53.3 54.0 126.0 69.9 61.8 14.0 35.7 49.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 40.3 41.8 49.0 106.5 57.7 53.4 23.4 37.5 46.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 31.7 36.6 40.5 112.9 60.4 58.3 19.5 27.0 40.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 36.4 35.5 56.9 108.1 60.1 53.9 19.6 31.7 40.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 40.9 41.8 42.4 110.3 60.9 57.4 18.9 38.9 48.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 47.8 54.2 69.1 108.8 60.2 54.4 31.7 44.6 56.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 38.2 37.4 47.6 103.2 57.9 53.9 22.9 34.4 44.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 36.9 42.3 42.5 112.4 60.4 58.1 20.0 34.1 46.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 33.6 39.9 44.7 108.9 60.9 56.6 21.6 30.5 41.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 43.2 46.6 52.5 107.2 59.9 55.2 29.2 40.2 52.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 44.5 50.5 49.8 101.8 55.9 53.2 23.7 40.4 55.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 20.7 39.2 47.5 103.9 57.3 51.7 19.1 28.1 41.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 43.8 52.0 46.5 103.1 57.2 54.3 20.0 39.8 55.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 35.2 41.8 51.3 118.0 66.2 59.2 21.0 30.9 41.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 55.9 58.9 60.9 109.3 61.0 54.6 42.0 50.3 69.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 36.8 39.0 42.0 109.1 60.8 57.3 16.0 33.4 43.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------