***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.2 9.4 84.3 52.1 46.5 0.1 1.2 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.5 1.7 9.0 87.4 55.0 46.8 0.3 1.1 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.8 8.8 78.6 51.1 44.9 0.7 1.5 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.1 9.8 83.4 55.0 47.2 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.1 10.1 85.1 53.5 47.2 1.4 3.1 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.7 1.8 8.8 80.7 53.8 45.6 0.5 1.4 2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.5 1.3 8.9 88.9 55.5 48.0 0.3 0.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.5 11.2 87.4 54.6 47.8 1.6 3.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.4 10.3 82.2 51.7 45.8 0.7 2.0 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.4 11.1 85.0 53.1 47.0 0.5 3.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.3 10.0 86.7 55.6 47.7 0.4 2.3 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.2 10.0 88.4 56.0 47.8 0.5 2.0 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.8 10.1 87.6 56.0 47.9 0.9 1.7 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.6 10.3 72.5 47.4 42.2 1.3 3.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.5 8.9 77.2 57.1 46.0 0.5 1.5 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.4 9.7 87.0 56.0 47.8 0.8 1.6 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.3 8.9 92.1 56.3 48.5 0.4 1.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.9 3.4 11.3 81.6 53.0 45.8 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.3 8.8 83.2 53.4 45.4 0.3 1.2 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.6 14.3 84.3 53.6 46.6 1.4 3.3 5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.0 9.6 81.2 53.1 45.7 1.1 2.7 3.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 0.6 1.5 9.0 87.6 55.1 46.2 0.1 1.4 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.5 0.9 8.7 77.2 50.9 43.9 0.3 0.9 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.8 10.2 77.9 51.7 44.5 1.4 3.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.1 10.6 87.0 51.5 47.0 0.5 1.8 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 0.5 1.5 9.4 83.8 55.5 47.3 0.6 1.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 2.5 1.8 10.3 88.5 52.1 47.7 0.3 1.7 3.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.6 9.0 81.2 57.0 47.1 0.8 1.8 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.6 12.1 81.3 52.9 45.8 2.8 5.6 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 2.7 1.2 9.0 85.3 53.1 46.4 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------