***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.6 9.9 89.7 62.1 51.5 1.5 4.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.2 6.3 9.4 97.4 63.0 53.9 1.4 3.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.8 9.8 90.7 61.4 51.5 5.0 7.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.1 11.1 93.9 60.3 50.1 3.5 7.9 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.1 9.5 10.5 89.1 57.4 49.7 3.2 6.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.6 9.8 84.9 56.3 48.0 1.2 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.9 6.4 9.3 98.4 62.7 54.5 2.5 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.2 10.6 11.0 88.2 55.5 48.8 3.9 9.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.6 11.0 88.4 59.6 49.2 1.5 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.3 11.4 89.8 57.6 49.6 0.9 5.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.2 9.9 86.3 55.1 48.5 1.0 4.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.7 9.6 85.7 55.9 48.2 1.3 4.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.2 10.0 84.5 54.5 47.8 2.0 5.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.9 13.1 12.6 97.2 60.2 52.6 6.5 10.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.8 10.2 12.7 108.8 66.5 51.6 0.9 4.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.1 9.6 85.5 55.1 48.2 1.1 6.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.3 9.2 9.3 99.9 65.1 54.0 1.2 3.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.3 12.2 92.7 57.7 50.3 1.5 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.6 9.5 96.3 62.2 53.4 3.6 7.1 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.5 15.0 93.3 56.5 49.5 2.4 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.3 10.5 89.1 60.7 50.1 2.9 6.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.1 9.6 9.7 97.4 63.8 53.0 1.9 4.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.0 10.0 95.7 62.2 52.6 2.7 7.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.2 11.3 92.8 59.8 51.1 4.2 10.0 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.1 11.3 90.2 61.5 50.0 4.3 7.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.2 10.0 87.4 56.6 48.2 1.5 4.4 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.2 10.6 90.8 61.8 51.6 2.3 5.7 8.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.0 8.1 10.6 94.8 61.2 50.0 0.4 2.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.1 13.1 94.0 57.3 50.5 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.8 9.4 94.2 61.8 53.2 2.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------