***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.0 14.3 11.8 112.0 64.4 56.5 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.3 10.6 116.9 67.8 56.9 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.6 16.6 12.1 115.4 65.3 57.8 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.3 19.2 19.1 159.6 77.3 67.7 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.0 17.8 17.2 141.3 75.1 63.9 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.1 12.8 17.2 146.6 75.2 65.1 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 10.8 12.6 10.3 113.4 65.8 56.3 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.6 19.6 18.1 140.2 72.1 62.2 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.9 14.4 16.5 134.4 72.9 61.8 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.7 14.2 17.2 136.5 72.3 61.1 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.7 17.2 140.2 72.9 62.3 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.1 14.1 17.1 141.5 72.6 62.7 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.8 15.3 17.8 141.9 74.3 63.0 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.9 17.5 15.8 128.4 69.3 59.1 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.1 23.6 20.4 187.2 81.6 71.5 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.2 14.9 17.2 140.5 74.1 62.1 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.9 10.0 112.5 66.2 55.3 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.6 11.3 17.0 131.3 70.8 59.4 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 13.0 11.0 116.7 67.5 57.0 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 11.5 18.7 22.4 138.6 72.5 62.5 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 10.2 14.8 14.6 126.1 69.9 60.3 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.9 10.5 112.9 66.0 55.7 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.3 11.6 11.9 116.9 67.1 57.4 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.2 13.4 15.2 125.9 68.8 59.0 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.4 15.2 15.2 126.2 67.3 60.4 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 10.8 12.3 17.6 148.3 73.3 64.9 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.7 12.8 114.8 64.0 57.1 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 15.2 20.2 19.5 172.0 79.6 69.2 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 15.0 17.3 18.6 135.2 70.9 60.8 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.1 11.0 116.7 67.7 57.2 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------