***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.3 8.0 12.5 127.4 65.8 58.8 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 14.4 17.1 12.6 152.2 75.5 65.9 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.6 15.5 13.0 134.3 69.3 59.5 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.1 15.8 13.2 117.7 66.9 55.1 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.2 17.2 12.7 103.9 61.0 50.9 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.0 10.0 94.9 58.5 47.5 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 14.4 18.1 12.6 154.8 75.7 65.7 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.7 19.6 14.4 117.3 65.4 55.1 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.0 13.1 117.4 65.2 54.8 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.8 14.4 115.2 64.4 53.5 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.8 14.8 12.7 107.4 61.8 51.6 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.0 16.7 12.9 117.6 66.0 55.6 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.2 11.9 12.4 101.1 59.7 50.4 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.6 19.5 18.0 149.9 73.2 63.1 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 10.0 24.6 12.1 136.2 71.2 60.7 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.9 12.5 110.1 64.2 52.5 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 15.9 17.4 12.2 154.2 75.8 65.1 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.2 16.4 129.8 70.5 57.7 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.6 18.3 13.1 152.8 75.2 65.7 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 18.0 17.4 120.8 68.1 57.0 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.0 12.9 118.1 65.1 55.5 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.3 17.8 13.3 160.3 77.4 66.5 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 14.0 12.7 14.1 154.3 73.9 65.0 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.0 19.2 15.8 136.2 72.2 59.5 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.6 11.2 12.8 104.6 57.9 52.4 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.4 14.8 10.5 93.7 58.6 47.0 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.9 14.0 12.8 120.8 63.0 57.7 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 20.4 12.1 124.4 69.0 56.7 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 23.1 17.1 130.1 70.9 58.5 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 18.0 18.5 12.6 147.6 74.4 64.8 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------