***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.9 5.6 2.1 78.6 72.8 2.1 3.9 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.5 6.3 5.6 1.9 77.4 71.1 1.5 3.7 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.0 7.7 6.0 1.9 75.6 70.4 3.8 5.1 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 2.0 2.7 2.9 1.9 75.0 70.9 -1.0 0.7 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.3 7.1 4.1 1.8 74.5 69.4 2.8 4.6 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.5 3.5 1.9 77.1 71.7 2.7 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.9 5.5 2.0 78.5 72.5 1.2 3.6 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 0.2 0.7 3.6 1.4 70.0 65.8 -1.5 0.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.9 4.8 1.7 73.1 68.1 3.8 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.7 7.0 4.2 1.5 71.6 66.4 2.8 4.3 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 6.5 7.3 4.4 1.8 74.7 69.7 3.0 4.9 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 6.8 7.7 4.0 1.6 73.0 68.4 3.8 5.5 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 6.1 7.1 4.1 1.9 77.7 71.1 3.0 4.5 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.3 7.8 5.3 1.3 68.8 63.5 3.2 5.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.7 6.7 4.0 2.0 75.9 71.6 1.9 3.6 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.8 4.0 1.9 77.8 71.2 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 4.9 5.8 5.4 1.8 77.1 70.4 1.2 3.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.1 4.0 4.1 1.3 67.1 64.2 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.8 5.7 1.9 75.9 70.0 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.9 2.8 1.3 67.5 64.4 0.0 1.8 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 6.6 7.5 5.6 1.8 74.4 69.5 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.3 5.5 1.7 74.7 68.3 2.1 3.9 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 5.6 6.3 5.8 1.8 74.7 68.7 2.5 4.2 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 7.5 8.1 5.2 1.5 70.0 65.2 4.2 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 5.3 6.7 4.5 2.0 78.2 71.4 2.4 3.3 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 5.6 6.1 3.5 1.8 75.1 71.2 3.0 4.6 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.9 5.2 2.0 78.3 72.1 2.8 4.7 6.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.3 7.5 3.5 1.9 74.9 70.6 3.1 4.0 6.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.9 3.2 3.6 1.3 67.1 64.4 1.2 2.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 5.5 6.4 5.6 2.0 77.5 71.7 1.5 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------