***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.1 4.2 0.9 58.1 56.5 0.1 3.2 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.7 4.1 4.2 0.9 57.4 57.1 0.3 2.7 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.8 4.5 0.8 58.0 55.7 2.7 4.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -2.6 0.7 1.4 0.6 54.2 53.5 -2.0 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.6 2.5 0.5 54.8 53.2 1.8 4.1 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.0 1.9 0.5 54.2 53.7 1.2 4.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.6 4.2 0.9 58.0 57.5 0.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.2 -0.4 2.1 0.2 50.7 51.1 -2.0 -0.5 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.1 3.2 0.4 54.9 52.8 2.7 4.8 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.0 2.6 0.2 52.6 51.6 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.6 2.6 0.5 54.3 53.5 1.8 4.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.9 2.5 0.4 52.9 53.1 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.4 2.1 0.5 55.1 54.5 1.4 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.2 5.5 3.6 0.1 51.2 50.8 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.5 2.3 0.7 52.9 54.3 1.1 2.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.1 2.2 0.6 55.7 54.0 2.4 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 6.2 3.3 4.2 0.8 56.4 57.3 0.0 2.7 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.6 2.6 0.0 49.7 50.2 0.4 2.6 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.9 4.0 4.4 0.9 56.8 56.4 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 1.7 1.1 -0.2 45.6 48.8 -0.9 1.9 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.1 3.9 0.6 56.9 54.0 2.4 4.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.9 3.0 4.2 0.7 54.9 56.3 0.2 2.8 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.7 3.3 4.6 0.7 55.3 55.2 1.7 3.1 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.5 3.5 0.2 52.1 51.6 3.0 5.3 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.9 2.7 0.7 57.4 55.0 1.2 3.5 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.1 2.1 0.6 54.6 55.5 2.9 4.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.3 3.7 0.8 58.1 56.2 2.3 4.5 7.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.5 1.7 0.5 52.7 52.8 1.4 3.0 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.9 2.8 2.1 -0.1 47.6 49.3 0.8 2.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.0 4.1 4.2 1.0 58.4 57.1 0.4 3.2 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------