***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 7.7 9.1 7.7 3.9 87.4 86.2 2.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 7.5 8.4 7.5 3.6 86.3 85.6 2.1 3.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 9.5 11.0 8.2 3.8 84.5 84.1 3.2 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 3.5 5.0 5.2 4.0 85.9 84.3 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 8.1 9.7 6.5 3.8 82.9 82.4 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 6.2 8.5 5.8 4.0 83.9 82.2 1.9 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 7.0 8.0 7.3 3.5 86.4 85.4 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.3 1.1 6.0 3.5 80.2 77.4 -2.2 -1.0 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 8.7 10.7 7.2 3.7 84.0 82.5 2.8 4.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 7.1 8.6 6.8 3.7 81.7 79.6 2.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 7.9 9.5 7.1 4.0 83.2 82.2 2.6 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 7.8 9.5 6.2 3.6 81.8 79.6 2.5 4.7 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 7.9 9.4 7.3 4.1 83.9 81.8 2.6 4.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 8.5 9.8 8.0 3.3 78.2 76.7 2.9 5.2 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 5.3 7.1 6.6 3.9 85.0 84.8 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 7.9 10.0 6.7 4.1 84.0 82.7 2.7 4.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 6.5 7.0 7.1 3.3 86.3 84.2 1.3 3.4 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.6 6.5 3.5 77.6 76.6 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 8.3 9.2 7.7 3.6 85.3 84.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.5 5.0 5.4 3.5 76.6 76.5 -0.5 0.4 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 8.5 10.7 8.1 3.8 84.7 83.2 2.8 4.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 6.9 8.3 7.4 3.1 85.1 82.8 1.9 4.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 7.5 8.5 7.7 3.5 84.3 83.0 2.5 4.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 8.1 9.2 7.8 3.4 80.1 78.2 2.5 5.0 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 6.9 8.2 7.1 3.9 86.9 85.2 2.5 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 6.1 7.3 5.5 3.4 81.0 78.9 2.5 3.7 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 8.9 10.6 7.3 3.7 86.5 84.9 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 5.8 8.6 6.2 4.1 84.3 83.7 2.2 3.9 4.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 3.8 5.1 6.1 3.5 78.6 76.8 0.1 1.7 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 7.5 8.6 7.6 3.7 86.0 85.3 1.9 3.3 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------