***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 -0.4 0.4 0.4 2.5 85.3 79.1 -3.6 -2.6 -1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 -1.0 -0.2 0.2 2.4 82.6 78.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 1.0 1.7 0.1 2.2 82.1 76.9 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 -4.0 -3.2 -2.5 2.5 82.0 78.0 -7.1 -5.7 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 -1.5 -0.1 -1.8 2.5 82.5 76.4 -3.9 -3.2 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 -2.2 -1.5 -3.9 2.5 81.9 78.4 -5.1 -4.0 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 -0.9 0.0 0.3 2.5 83.5 78.9 -3.7 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -6.1 -5.5 -3.7 2.3 79.8 75.1 -8.3 -7.0 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 -0.8 0.4 -1.7 2.3 81.7 76.3 -3.1 -2.6 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 -1.5 -0.6 -3.1 2.3 79.9 74.7 -3.8 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 -1.5 -0.3 -2.4 2.5 82.3 76.7 -4.4 -3.2 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -2.1 -1.2 -2.9 2.6 81.9 76.5 -5.1 -3.5 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 -1.8 -0.7 -3.1 2.5 82.1 76.9 -4.7 -2.9 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 1.8 72.9 70.2 -3.0 -1.8 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 -0.9 0.1 -1.0 2.7 87.1 81.9 -4.5 -3.0 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 -0.8 0.2 -2.9 2.6 83.3 77.5 -3.7 -2.1 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 2.4 81.4 77.4 -4.3 -2.5 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -3.3 -2.6 -3.7 2.1 76.7 72.1 -6.9 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 -0.8 0.0 0.0 2.3 82.4 77.2 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -5.7 -4.7 -4.6 2.2 79.2 73.5 -10.0 -7.7 -5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 -1.0 0.1 -0.5 2.3 81.9 76.5 -3.7 -2.7 -1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 -1.4 -0.4 0.1 2.2 80.4 76.0 -4.2 -2.7 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 2.1 81.3 75.4 -3.7 -2.2 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.2 2.0 76.2 71.8 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 2.6 84.6 79.2 -3.3 -2.7 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 -1.6 -0.9 -2.9 2.8 83.9 78.7 -4.2 -3.2 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 -0.2 0.7 0.1 2.6 84.4 79.0 -3.9 -2.1 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 -2.1 -1.4 -2.2 2.6 83.5 78.9 -5.1 -3.5 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -3.6 -3.0 -4.1 2.1 77.1 72.9 -5.5 -5.0 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 -0.3 0.3 0.2 2.4 83.9 78.5 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------