***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.8 3.0 4.7 93.2 92.2 -3.4 -1.7 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 1.0 2.6 2.8 4.7 94.0 91.7 -3.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 2.8 4.4 2.7 4.3 92.1 90.3 -2.0 -0.6 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.0 -0.7 0.5 4.7 90.7 90.7 -7.7 -5.8 -5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.2 3.3 1.5 4.7 92.4 90.3 -3.5 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -0.9 1.4 -1.1 4.6 91.1 89.6 -5.2 -3.5 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.7 2.9 4.8 94.7 91.7 -4.2 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 -5.6 -2.0 -0.7 4.6 91.1 88.7 -9.0 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.0 3.5 1.0 4.5 92.5 91.1 -2.9 -1.8 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 0.5 2.6 -0.3 4.6 91.5 88.9 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 0.4 2.9 0.8 4.8 91.3 90.4 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 -0.4 1.9 0.3 4.9 91.7 90.4 -4.2 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 0.1 2.1 0.1 4.5 90.9 89.6 -4.5 -2.2 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 1.8 2.2 0.9 4.2 93.5 89.9 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -0.6 0.4 2.0 4.8 92.6 92.3 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 0.6 3.0 0.5 4.8 92.7 91.5 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.4 1.5 2.9 4.7 94.3 91.5 -3.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 -1.7 -0.3 -0.5 4.4 91.5 88.3 -5.5 -3.3 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.3 2.5 4.4 93.4 91.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 -3.6 -0.7 -1.3 4.6 89.5 86.1 -9.5 -6.8 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 0.8 3.1 2.2 4.3 91.7 90.5 -3.0 -2.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.3 1.9 2.9 4.5 94.2 91.4 -3.2 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.6 2.0 4.1 93.1 90.8 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 1.0 1.4 0.8 4.1 92.7 89.7 -3.6 -2.7 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.0 2.6 4.8 94.4 92.8 -3.0 -1.8 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.9 0.2 4.9 92.8 90.9 -3.8 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 1.9 5.0 2.9 4.7 93.5 91.7 -3.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.0 -0.5 1.1 5.0 92.7 91.8 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 -2.3 0.9 -1.3 4.6 91.3 88.0 -6.0 -5.2 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.2 2.8 4.5 93.8 91.4 -3.5 -2.0 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------